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Atlanta — photograph (Photo: AtlChampion · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “Atlanta” up to 62% from 46%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:01 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 8. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 8 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: AtlChampion · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

46%62%

Atlanta · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:01 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+16 pts
Market at capture53%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 9, 2026?

Atlanta · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday99%+37 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KATL: high so far 73.4°F · latest 62.6°F () · rain so far 0.09 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 10 00:25Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 8 23:00Z PBE 83% pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 9 06:20Z PBE 47% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 06:20Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 9 11:00Z PBE 64% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 11:00Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 9 19:10Z PBE 54% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 18:20Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 9 23:00Z PBE 82% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 23:00Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 10 00:25Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 10 00:25Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Atlanta” from 46% to 62% (+16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 8 11:00Z → Oct 8 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 26% to 53%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 11:01Z (data cutoff Oct 8 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 8 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Atlanta” from 46% to 62%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 55% to 76%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 56% to 77%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 26% to 28%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain55%76%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window56%77%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window26%28%yes
Guidance lead time23h17h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Atlanta”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 8 09:13ZOct 8 13:06ZOct 8 17:00Z46%62%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 8 09:13ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 46% · Oct 8 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 62% · Oct 8 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 8 09:13ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.026
Oct 8 09:19ZKalshi mid14
Oct 8 09:21ZKalshi mid14
Oct 8 09:23ZKalshi mid16
Oct 8 09:25ZKalshi mid16
Oct 8 09:27ZKalshi mid16
Oct 8 09:31ZKalshi mid14
Oct 8 09:35ZKalshi mid11
Oct 8 09:43ZKalshi mid14
Oct 8 09:45ZKalshi mid16
Oct 8 09:49ZKalshi mid17
Oct 8 10:01ZKalshi mid20
Oct 8 10:29ZKalshi mid21
Oct 8 10:45ZKalshi mid19
Oct 8 10:47ZKalshi mid18
Oct 8 10:49ZKalshi mid20
Oct 8 10:51ZKalshi mid23
Oct 8 10:53ZKalshi mid26
Oct 8 10:55ZKalshi mid26
Oct 8 10:57ZKalshi mid26
Oct 8 10:59ZKalshi mid26
Oct 8 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.046
Oct 8 11:01ZKalshi mid26
Oct 8 11:05ZKalshi mid27
Oct 8 11:19ZKalshi mid31
Oct 8 11:21ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:27ZKalshi mid27
Oct 8 11:31ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:37ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:39ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:41ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:45ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:47ZKalshi mid27
Oct 8 11:53ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 11:55ZKalshi mid29
Oct 8 11:59ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 12:01ZKalshi mid28
Oct 8 12:07ZKalshi mid31
Oct 8 12:09ZKalshi mid32
Oct 8 12:32ZKalshi mid34
Oct 8 12:36ZKalshi mid34
Oct 8 12:38ZKalshi mid35
Oct 8 12:40ZKalshi mid35
Oct 8 12:42ZKalshi mid35
Oct 8 13:00ZKalshi mid35
Oct 8 13:28ZKalshi mid35
Oct 8 13:46ZKalshi mid33
Oct 8 13:48ZKalshi mid32
Oct 8 13:58ZKalshi mid33
Oct 8 14:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 8 14:14ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 14:16ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 14:20ZKalshi mid36
Oct 8 14:24ZKalshi mid36
Oct 8 14:30ZKalshi mid36
Oct 8 14:46ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 14:48ZKalshi mid42
Oct 8 14:50ZKalshi mid45
Oct 8 14:52ZKalshi mid46
Oct 8 14:54ZKalshi mid49
Oct 8 14:56ZKalshi mid49
Oct 8 14:58ZKalshi mid51
Oct 8 15:00ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 15:02ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 15:08ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 15:10ZKalshi mid64
Oct 8 15:16ZKalshi mid64
Oct 8 15:20ZKalshi mid63
Oct 8 15:22ZKalshi mid63
Oct 8 15:24ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 15:26ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 15:28ZKalshi mid52
Oct 8 15:30ZKalshi mid51
Oct 8 15:32ZKalshi mid51
Oct 8 15:34ZKalshi mid51
Oct 8 15:40ZKalshi mid51
Oct 8 15:42ZKalshi mid50
Oct 8 15:44ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 15:46ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 15:52ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 16:00ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 16:02ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 16:04ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 16:06ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 16:08ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 16:12ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 16:20ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 16:40ZKalshi mid53
Oct 8 16:58ZKalshi mid53
Oct 8 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.062
Oct 8 17:00ZKalshi mid53

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 26% to 53%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 8 11:01ZOct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 8 11:00ZOct 8 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T12Z
PBE46%62%
Market at capture26%53%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Atlanta
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f5eab54f-b6b5-4235-8e70-b32f9eca3ff9
Compared with
2d84458a-fc37-49aa-a374-0cb31e320918
Captured
Oct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 8 17:00Z
Market observation
53% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIATL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIATL (WFO FFC); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013874
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-10T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIATL in Atlanta in Oct 9, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.