WeatherRESEARCHKalshi KXRAIN-26OCT09 ↗

Where will it rain on Oct 9, 2026?

Closes 2026-10-10 08:00 UTC32 outcomes

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Tracked outcomes

Albuquerque
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
College Station
Columbus
Dallas
Washington DC
Denver
Newark
Houston
IndianapolisSTATION_NOT_IN_CLI_REGISTRY
Los Angeles
Lexington
Las Vegas
Miami
Minneapolis
Milwaukee
New Orleans
New York City
Oklahoma City
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Providence
San Antonio
Seattle
San Francisco
Springfield
St. LouisSTATION_NOT_IN_CLI_REGISTRY
Trenton

Exactly how this resolves

Station / series: CLIABQ — ALBUQUERQUE INTL (KABQ, NWS ABQ)
Measurement: Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Window: 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC → 2026-10-10 07:00 UTC (America/Denver)
Resolution source: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIABQ (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIABQ (WFO ABQ); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023050
Rounding: Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions: Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-10T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
Normalization: NORMALIZED · contract-norm/1

Venue rule (example outcome):

If the total precipitation at CLIABQ in Albuquerque in Oct 9, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Model

Family: Weather · measurable rain (pbe-weather-precip)
State: RESEARCH
Inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS)

Known limitations: Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1) · IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier · Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Methodology →

Prediction Intelligence on this event

Where will it rain on Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “Atlanta” up to 62% from 46%Forecast Change · 2026-10-08