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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.11% or above” down to 30% from 40%

New Treasury data reached the model between 04:02 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

40%30%

5.11% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 04:02 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture29%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.11% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE30%0 pts since publication
Kalshi29%−8 pts since publication
Gap+1

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 20:58Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:50Z PBE 40% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:52Z PBE 30% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:52Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:56Z PBE 40% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:58Z PBE 30% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.11% or above” from 40% to 30% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 23:59Z → Nov 2 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 37% to 29%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 04:02Z (data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z) and the one at Nov 2 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 2 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.11% or above” from 40% to 30%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.94% to 4.91%; Period high/low so far from — to 4.91%; Business days left from 19 to 18.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-302026-11-02—
Latest official par yield4.94%4.91%yes
Period high/low so far—4.91%yes
Business days left1918yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.11% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 2 00:25ZNov 2 20:48Z40%30%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 2 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.040
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 23:02ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 00:06ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 00:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 01:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 02:52ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 07:58ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 08:02ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid34
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid33
Nov 2 16:26ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 16:44ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 18:46ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:42ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:46ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 20:22ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 37% to 29%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 04:02ZNov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoffOct 30 23:59ZNov 2 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE40%30%
Market at capture37%29%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.11% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
50e4148f-af05-4b00-9c13-2845552bb512
Compared with
4f4df40d-4211-44a1-a4c1-6d92ac65df1b
Captured
Nov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 20:48Z
Market observation
29% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.