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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.06% or above” up to 52% from 42%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:58 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 3. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 3 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

42%52%

5.06% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:58 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture54%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.06% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE52%0 pts since publication
Kalshi53%+14 pts since publication
Gap−1

RESEARCH PBE Nov 3 21:14Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:54Z PBE 42% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:56Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 20:56Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:58Z PBE 42% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:00Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:00Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:02Z PBE 42% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:04Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:04Z
  7. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:12Z PBE 42% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  8. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:14Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.06% or above” from 42% to 52% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 20:58Z → Nov 3 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 39% to 54%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 20:58Z (data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z) and the one at Nov 3 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 3 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.06% or above” from 42% to 52%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.91% to 4.95%; Period high/low so far from 4.91% to 4.95%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-022026-11-03—
Latest official par yield4.91%4.95%yes
Period high/low so far4.91%4.95%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.06% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 2 12:25ZNov 3 20:48Z42%52%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 06:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 10:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 11:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 23:02ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 23:08ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 00:02ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 00:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 2 00:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 01:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 02:52ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 05:18ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 10:40ZKalshi mid49
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 2 13:50ZKalshi mid45
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 13:58ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 14:20ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid36
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid35
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 18:48ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 19:42ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 20:22ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 00:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 00:42ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 01:32ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 03:34ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 03:46ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 03:56ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 04:16ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 05:02ZKalshi mid39
Nov 3 05:36ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 06:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 06:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 06:48ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 07:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 07:54ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 08:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 08:16ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 08:22ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 09:22ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 09:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 10:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 11:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 11:22ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 11:32ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 11:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 11:38ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:02ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 12:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:10ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 12:34ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 12:38ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 12:48ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 13:02ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 13:14ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 13:28ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 13:38ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 14:12ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 14:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:36ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:46ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 15:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 15:08ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:16ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:22ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 16:46ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 16:50ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 16:52ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 17:04ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:08ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 18:32ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:36ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 19:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 20:04ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 39% to 54%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoffNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE42%52%
Market at capture39%54%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.06% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
25b8677d-c9b5-4444-9874-90c8ba04f037
Compared with
5397f30d-14d6-42c3-9c1f-e393c8a5cc3f
Captured
Nov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 3 20:48Z
Market observation
54% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.