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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.06% or above” down to 35% from 52%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:14 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 4 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

52%35%

5.06% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:14 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move−17 pts
Market at capture38%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.06% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE35%0 pts since publication
Kalshi40%−15 pts since publication
Gap−5

RESEARCH PBE Nov 4 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:52Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:58Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 20:58Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:08Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:10Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.06% or above” from 52% to 35% (−17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 3 21:14Z → Nov 4 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 38%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 3 21:14Z (data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z) and the one at Nov 4 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 4 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.06% or above” from 52% to 35%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.95% to 4.9%; Business days left from 17 to 16.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-032026-11-04—
Latest official par yield4.95%4.9%yes
Business days left1716yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.06% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 3 00:26ZNov 4 20:50Z52%35%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 35% · Nov 4 20:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 06:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 10:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 11:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 23:02ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 23:08ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 00:02ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 00:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 2 00:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 2 01:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 02:52ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 2 05:18ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 10:40ZKalshi mid49
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 2 13:50ZKalshi mid45
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 13:58ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 14:20ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid36
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid35
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 18:48ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 19:42ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid41
Nov 2 20:22ZKalshi mid42
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 00:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 00:42ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 00:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 01:32ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 03:34ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 03:46ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 03:56ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 04:16ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 05:02ZKalshi mid39
Nov 3 05:36ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 06:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 06:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 06:48ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 07:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 07:54ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 08:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 08:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 08:16ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 08:22ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 09:22ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 09:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:02ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 10:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 10:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 11:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 11:22ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 11:32ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 11:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 11:38ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:02ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 12:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 12:10ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 12:34ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 12:38ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 12:48ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 13:02ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 13:14ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 13:28ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 13:38ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 14:12ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 14:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:36ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 14:46ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 15:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 15:08ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:16ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:22ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 16:46ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 16:50ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 16:52ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 17:04ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:08ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 18:32ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:36ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 19:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 20:04ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:02ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Nov 3 21:18ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 22:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 23:02ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 23:30ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 23:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 00:02ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 01:40ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 01:44ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 01:50ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 02:18ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 02:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 04:36ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 10:54ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 11:58ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 13:38ZKalshi mid45
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid43
Nov 4 13:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid46
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid45
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid44
Nov 4 14:12ZKalshi mid46
Nov 4 14:14ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 14:26ZKalshi mid45
Nov 4 14:28ZKalshi mid46
Nov 4 14:32ZKalshi mid46
Nov 4 14:38ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 15:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 15:14ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 15:16ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 15:18ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 15:28ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 15:58ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid45
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 4 16:22ZKalshi mid43
Nov 4 16:26ZKalshi mid45
Nov 4 16:32ZKalshi mid44
Nov 4 16:46ZKalshi mid43
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 16:54ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 17:04ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 17:18ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid42
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 18:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid43
Nov 4 18:48ZKalshi mid42
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 19:16ZKalshi mid37
Nov 4 19:36ZKalshi mid36
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 20:12ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.035

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 38%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE52%35%
Market at capture55%38%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.06% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0d79f886-e923-4328-8117-c5564ce2ac69
Compared with
b926bcbf-4afe-4606-b8aa-d09f20f0b6a4
Captured
Nov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 4 20:50Z
Market observation
38% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.