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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.11% or above” up to 81% from 39%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:18 UTC and 20:52 UTC on Nov 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 12 20:52ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

39%81%

5.11% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:18 UTC → 20:52 UTC

Move+42 pts
Market at capture85%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.11% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE81%0 pts since publication
Kalshi79%+38 pts since publication
Gap+2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 12 21:06Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 12 20:58Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:02Z PBE 81% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:02Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:04Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:06Z PBE 81% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:06Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.11% or above” from 39% to 81% (+42 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 21:18Z → Nov 12 20:52Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 41% to 85%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 10 21:18Z (data cutoff Nov 10 21:18Z) and the one at Nov 12 20:52Z (cutoff Nov 12 20:52Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.11% or above” from 39% to 81%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.7 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.98% to 5.1%; Period high/low so far from 4.98% to 5.1%; Business days left from 12 to 11.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.7 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-102026-11-12—
Latest official par yield4.98%5.1%yes
Period high/low so far4.98%5.1%yes
Business days left1211yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.11% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 7 00:27ZNov 12 20:52Z39%81%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 81% · Nov 12 20:52Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.040
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 1 23:02ZKalshi mid39
Nov 10 00:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 00:06ZKalshi mid17
Nov 10 01:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 02:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 03:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 04:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 05:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 06:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 07:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 08:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 09:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 10:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 11:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 12:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 14:02ZKalshi mid30
Nov 10 14:12ZKalshi mid32
Nov 10 14:16ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 14:26ZKalshi mid35
Nov 10 14:28ZKalshi mid34
Nov 10 14:42ZKalshi mid37
Nov 10 14:46ZKalshi mid39
Nov 10 14:56ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 15:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 15:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 15:12ZKalshi mid43
Nov 10 15:22ZKalshi mid45
Nov 10 15:26ZKalshi mid44
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid45
Nov 10 16:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 10 16:22ZKalshi mid44
Nov 10 16:42ZKalshi mid47
Nov 10 16:50ZKalshi mid49
Nov 10 16:56ZKalshi mid48
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 10 17:10ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 17:36ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 18:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 10 18:10ZKalshi mid50
Nov 10 18:20ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 18:50ZKalshi mid48
Nov 10 18:56ZKalshi mid47
Nov 10 19:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 10 19:06ZKalshi mid47
Nov 10 19:10ZKalshi mid48
Nov 10 19:26ZKalshi mid45
Nov 10 19:30ZKalshi mid44
Nov 10 20:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 20:10ZKalshi mid40
Nov 10 20:16ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 21:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 21:50ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 22:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 23:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 00:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 01:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 02:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 02:06ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 03:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 04:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 04:46ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 05:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 06:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 07:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 07:30ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 08:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 09:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 09:06ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 10:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 11:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 12:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 13:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 13:40ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 14:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 15:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 16:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 17:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 18:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 19:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 20:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 21:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 22:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 23:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 00:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 01:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 02:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 03:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 04:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 05:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 06:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 07:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 08:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 10:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 12 10:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 12 11:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 12 12:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 12 13:00ZKalshi mid44
Nov 12 13:16ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 13:20ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 13:40ZKalshi mid51
Nov 12 13:44ZKalshi mid50
Nov 12 13:46ZKalshi mid59
Nov 12 13:50ZKalshi mid57
Nov 12 13:56ZKalshi mid56
Nov 12 14:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 12 14:04ZKalshi mid54
Nov 12 14:06ZKalshi mid53
Nov 12 14:16ZKalshi mid52
Nov 12 14:20ZKalshi mid49
Nov 12 14:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 12 14:30ZKalshi mid46
Nov 12 14:40ZKalshi mid48
Nov 12 14:50ZKalshi mid50
Nov 12 15:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 12 15:06ZKalshi mid58
Nov 12 15:10ZKalshi mid61
Nov 12 15:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 12 15:20ZKalshi mid60
Nov 12 15:30ZKalshi mid66
Nov 12 15:40ZKalshi mid68
Nov 12 15:50ZKalshi mid63
Nov 12 15:56ZKalshi mid62
Nov 12 16:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 12 16:06ZKalshi mid62
Nov 12 16:10ZKalshi mid64
Nov 12 16:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 12 16:36ZKalshi mid67
Nov 12 16:46ZKalshi mid69
Nov 12 16:50ZKalshi mid73
Nov 12 17:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 12 17:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 12 17:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 12 17:20ZKalshi mid82
Nov 12 17:26ZKalshi mid80
Nov 12 17:50ZKalshi mid83
Nov 12 18:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 12 18:06ZKalshi mid82
Nov 12 18:10ZKalshi mid84
Nov 12 18:14ZKalshi mid85
Nov 12 18:30ZKalshi mid86
Nov 12 19:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 12 19:06ZKalshi mid89
Nov 12 19:16ZKalshi mid90
Nov 12 19:20ZKalshi mid91
Nov 12 19:36ZKalshi mid87
Nov 12 20:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 12 20:04ZKalshi mid88
Nov 12 20:42ZKalshi mid86
Nov 12 20:50ZKalshi mid85
Nov 12 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.081
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 00:06ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 00:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 2 01:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 02:52ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 07:58ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 2 08:02ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid34
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid33
Nov 2 16:26ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 16:44ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 18:46ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:42ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 19:46ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid30
Nov 2 20:22ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.040
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.040
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 00:16ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 00:44ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 00:46ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 02:14ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 03:34ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 03:56ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 04:16ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 05:02ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 06:20ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 07:04ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 07:12ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 08:04ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 08:08ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 08:12ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 08:22ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 09:04ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 09:30ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 10:16ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 11:08ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 11:22ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 11:32ZKalshi mid33
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 12:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 3 12:20ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 12:22ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 12:34ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 13:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 3 13:28ZKalshi mid31
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid29
Nov 3 13:38ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid35
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 13:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 3 13:52ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid33
Nov 3 14:12ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid32
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid35
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid33
Nov 3 14:34ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 14:36ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid34
Nov 3 14:46ZKalshi mid35
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid36
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid36
Nov 3 15:04ZKalshi mid37
Nov 3 15:06ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 15:08ZKalshi mid39
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 15:16ZKalshi mid37
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 15:22ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid36
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid37
Nov 3 16:46ZKalshi mid37
Nov 3 16:52ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 18:36ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 19:04ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 19:18ZKalshi mid39
Nov 3 19:52ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 3 20:04ZKalshi mid39
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.030
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 3 21:18ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 22:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 3 23:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 3 23:14ZKalshi mid41
Nov 3 23:38ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 12:14ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid41
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid33
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid32
Nov 4 13:46ZKalshi mid36
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid34
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 4 14:14ZKalshi mid35
Nov 4 14:16ZKalshi mid32
Nov 4 14:38ZKalshi mid37
Nov 4 14:48ZKalshi mid36
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid35
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid37
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid36
Nov 4 15:16ZKalshi mid37
Nov 4 15:18ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 15:28ZKalshi mid39
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid42
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid40
Nov 4 15:58ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid35
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid34
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid32
Nov 4 16:18ZKalshi mid31
Nov 4 16:26ZKalshi mid33
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid30
Nov 4 16:54ZKalshi mid30
Nov 4 16:58ZKalshi mid29
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 4 17:06ZKalshi mid30
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid30
Nov 4 17:52ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 18:16ZKalshi mid29
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid30
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid31
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid27
Nov 4 19:36ZKalshi mid26
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 4 20:12ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.025
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.025
Nov 4 21:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 21:02ZKalshi mid27
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.025
Nov 4 22:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 4 22:12ZKalshi mid27
Nov 4 23:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 00:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 00:20ZKalshi mid27
Nov 5 00:30ZKalshi mid30
Nov 5 00:34ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 01:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 01:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 02:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 02:04ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 03:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 04:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 05:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 06:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 07:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 07:34ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 08:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 10:02ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 11:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 12:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 13:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 13:50ZKalshi mid30
Nov 5 14:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 5 14:10ZKalshi mid30
Nov 5 14:30ZKalshi mid31
Nov 5 14:46ZKalshi mid32
Nov 5 14:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 5 14:54ZKalshi mid25
Nov 5 15:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 5 15:04ZKalshi mid25
Nov 5 15:10ZKalshi mid23
Nov 5 15:14ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 15:20ZKalshi mid22
Nov 5 15:22ZKalshi mid24
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid21
Nov 5 16:10ZKalshi mid19
Nov 5 16:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 16:36ZKalshi mid25
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 17:04ZKalshi mid19
Nov 5 17:34ZKalshi mid21
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 18:04ZKalshi mid19
Nov 5 18:14ZKalshi mid18
Nov 5 18:20ZKalshi mid17
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 5 19:30ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.025
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 5 21:10ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 00:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 01:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 02:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 03:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 04:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 05:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 06:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 07:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 08:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 09:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 10:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 10:14ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 11:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 11:34ZKalshi mid25
Nov 6 11:40ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 12:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 13:48ZKalshi mid14
Nov 6 13:54ZKalshi mid13
Nov 6 14:00ZKalshi mid13
Nov 6 14:02ZKalshi mid13
Nov 6 14:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 6 14:10ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 14:24ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 15:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 15:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 6 15:10ZKalshi mid25
Nov 6 15:24ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 15:44ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 15:54ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 16:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 16:10ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 16:26ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 17:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 17:04ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 17:30ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 17:54ZKalshi mid17
Nov 6 18:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 6 18:06ZKalshi mid18
Nov 6 18:18ZKalshi mid17
Nov 6 18:20ZKalshi mid17
Nov 6 18:50ZKalshi mid19
Nov 6 19:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 6 19:24ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 20:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 20:10ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:06ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 22:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 22:04ZKalshi mid23
Nov 6 22:24ZKalshi mid20
Nov 6 22:34ZKalshi mid22
Nov 6 23:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 6 23:36ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 00:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 00:10ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 01:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 01:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 02:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 02:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 02:06ZKalshi mid19
Nov 7 03:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 03:50ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 04:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 04:22ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 05:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 06:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 06:24ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 06:52ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 07:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 07:16ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 08:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 08:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 08:52ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 09:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 09:22ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 10:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 10:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 11:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 12:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 13:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 14:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 15:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 15:12ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 17:36ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 20:28ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 20:52ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 21:30ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 23:20ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 00:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 00:16ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 01:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 02:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 03:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 04:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 04:10ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 05:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 06:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 07:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 07:12ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 08:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 09:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 09:16ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 10:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 10:06ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 11:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 11:36ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 12:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 12:26ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 13:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 13:56ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 14:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 14:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 15:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 15:46ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 16:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 16:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 17:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 18:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 19:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 19:20ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 20:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 20:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 21:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 21:10ZKalshi mid20
Nov 8 22:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 23:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 8 23:06ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 00:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 00:06ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 01:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 02:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 03:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 04:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 05:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 06:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 07:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 08:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 09:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 10:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 11:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 12:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 13:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 13:40ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 13:46ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 13:56ZKalshi mid17
Nov 9 14:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 14:08ZKalshi mid17
Nov 9 14:30ZKalshi mid16
Nov 9 15:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 15:06ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 15:30ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 16:12ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 16:30ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 17:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 18:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 18:04ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 19:36ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 19:56ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 20:06ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid18

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 41% to 85%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 10 21:18ZNov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoffNov 10 21:18ZNov 12 20:52Z
Guidance runs——
PBE39%81%
Market at capture41%85%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.11% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b308711a-8bc8-4661-9436-96747714ebc8
Compared with
2d0e9370-cda2-4a55-94f8-e60747e83a31
Captured
Nov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoff
Nov 12 20:52Z
Market observation
85% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.