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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 13, 2026: PBE moves “5.11% or above” up to 43% from 6%

New Treasury data reached the model between 18:32 UTC and 20:52 UTC on Nov 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 12 20:52ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

6%43%

5.11% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 18:32 UTC → 20:52 UTC

Move+37 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 13, 2026?

5.11% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE43%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 12 21:06Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 12 20:58Z PBE 6% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:02Z PBE 43% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:02Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:04Z PBE 6% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:06Z PBE 43% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:06Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.11% or above” from 6% to 43% (+37 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 23:59Z → Nov 12 20:52Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 12 18:32Z (data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z) and the one at Nov 12 20:52Z (cutoff Nov 12 20:52Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.11% or above” from 6% to 43%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.7 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.98% to 5.1%; Period high/low so far from 4.98% to 5.1%; Business days left from 2 to 1.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.7 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-102026-11-12—
Latest official par yield4.98%5.1%yes
Period high/low so far4.98%5.1%yes
Business days left21yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.11% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 12 18:32ZNov 12 19:42ZNov 12 20:52Z6%43%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 6% · Nov 12 18:32ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 12 20:52Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 12 18:32ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.06
Nov 12 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 12 18:32ZNov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoffNov 10 23:59ZNov 12 20:52Z
Guidance runs——
PBE6%43%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.11% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
25f50109-3708-423b-9579-6f17ea1eff88
Compared with
b56d60b0-2e24-4207-8c7e-7ef65a5302bc
Captured
Nov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoff
Nov 12 20:52Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-06..2026-11-13; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Nov 6, 2026 and Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.