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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026: PBE moves “4.96% or above” down to 25% from 62%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:14 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 4 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

62%25%

4.96% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:14 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move−37 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?

4.96% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE25%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 4 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:52Z PBE 62% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:58Z PBE 25% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 20:58Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:08Z PBE 62% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:10Z PBE 25% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.96% or above” from 62% to 25% (−37 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 3 21:14Z → Nov 4 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 3 21:14Z (data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z) and the one at Nov 4 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 4 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.96% or above” from 62% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.95% to 4.9%; Business days left from 3 to 2.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-032026-11-04—
Latest official par yield4.95%4.9%yes
Business days left32yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.96% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 23:06ZNov 2 09:58ZNov 4 20:50Z62%25%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Oct 30 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 25% · Nov 4 20:50Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.044
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.025
Oct 30 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE62%25%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.96% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
d773977d-a28f-430e-950b-2da80a85df12
Compared with
ff0b548b-f380-43c1-aece-2441fb6b27a0
Captured
Nov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 4 20:50Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-30..2026-11-06; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.