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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026: PBE moves “5.17% or above” down to 37% from 61%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:54 UTC and 20:12 UTC on Oct 20. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 20 20:12ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

61%37%

5.17% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:54 UTC → 20:12 UTC

Move−24 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

5.17% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE34%−3 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 21 19:58Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:18Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:20Z PBE 37% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:20Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:26Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:34Z PBE 37% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:34Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:36Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:38Z PBE 37% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:38Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.17% or above” from 61% to 37% (−24 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 19 19:54Z → Oct 20 20:12Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 19 19:54Z (data cutoff Oct 19 19:54Z) and the one at Oct 20 20:12Z (cutoff Oct 20 20:12Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.17% or above” from 61% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.9 bp to 4.8 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.15% to 5.12%; Business days left from 4 to 3.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.9 bp4.8 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-192026-10-20—
Latest official par yield5.15%5.12%yes
Business days left43yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.17% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 16 23:06ZOct 18 21:39ZOct 20 20:12Z61%37%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Oct 16 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 20 20:12Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 16 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Oct 20 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoffOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Guidance runs——
PBE61%37%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.17% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
589e90a6-f3ab-4e78-82c2-0a25b3b69004
Compared with
a4931e04-f751-4e36-b9d8-833b3fde8988
Captured
Oct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoff
Oct 20 20:12Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-16..2026-10-23; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.