How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026: 5.15% or above — it happened. How PBE scored.
5.15% or above: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 43%. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Oct 26 22:01Z · verified against U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-16..2026-10-23
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
5.15% or above · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: 5.15% or above: YES; official check 5.15 percent agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 43%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.056 (n=20).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026 resolved with 5.15% or above: YES. The venue settled at Oct 26 22:01Z (expiration value 5.15); PropBetEdge's independent check — U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-16..2026-10-23 — recorded 5.15 percent, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.11% or above | YES | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| 5.12% or above | YES | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| 5.13% or above | YES | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| 5.14% or above | YES | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| 5.15% or above | YES | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| 5.16% or above | NO | 38% | 42% | 1% |
| 5.17% or above | NO | 33% | 34% | 1% |
| 5.18% or above | NO | 29% | 28% | 1% |
| 5.19% or above | NO | 25% | 22% | 1% |
| 5.2% or above | NO | 22% | 17% | 1% |
| 5.21% or above | NO | 19% | 14% | 1% |
| 5.22% or above | NO | 16% | 11% | 1% |
| 5.23% or above | NO | 14% | 9% | 1% |
| 5.24% or above | NO | 12% | 7% | 1% |
| 5.25% or above | NO | 11% | 6% | 1% |
| 5.26% or above | NO | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 5.27% or above | NO | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 5.28% or above | NO | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 5.29% or above | NO | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 5.3% or above | NO | 4% | 2% | 1% |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 20 contracts was 0.056. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.085 | — | 20 | 0 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.304 | — | 20 | 0 |
| T−24 h | Brier | 0.081 | — | 20 | 0 |
| T−24 h | Log loss | 0.278 | — | 20 | 0 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.056 | — | 20 | 0 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.168 | — | 20 | 0 |
This event adds 20 resolved contracts to the model's live record (163 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.11% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 79c271c8-3299-4846-9aa2-58f81cdf4f4d | 79c271c8-3299-4846-9aa2-58f81cdf4f4d | Oct 16 23:06Z | Oct 16 23:06Z | — |
| 5.12% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 5980e2fc-997c-4dac-8e56-f0a9560c0a0d | 5980e2fc-997c-4dac-8e56-f0a9560c0a0d | Oct 16 23:06Z | Oct 16 23:06Z | — |
| 5.13% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 87851690-f5e4-4fea-844e-ba078473f508 | 87851690-f5e4-4fea-844e-ba078473f508 | Oct 16 23:06Z | Oct 16 23:06Z | — |
| 5.14% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | e4dcf897-422d-429c-a3bb-f1ad8fa49f4b | e4dcf897-422d-429c-a3bb-f1ad8fa49f4b | Oct 16 23:06Z | Oct 16 23:06Z | — |
| 5.15% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | ff2cce0d-12db-4b5a-a184-04bab801e42d | ff2cce0d-12db-4b5a-a184-04bab801e42d | Oct 16 23:06Z | Oct 16 23:06Z | — |
| 5.16% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 17e4f77e-4957-4b32-9938-ad9befcd99cd | 515e8a65-079c-477e-8da1-e72ee90cbbbb | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.17% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 61389675-db3c-4423-a719-7c1daabef30c | f6b2340a-04b2-46e0-b957-93c2b6af75f4 | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.18% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 8af0df6f-60a2-46ac-a2c6-f96351c7e6c2 | 0b542397-283f-439b-b70e-8428d3fd4ff1 | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.19% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 4f429fed-00df-48e6-8e27-78d63c71d2b2 | 210470f1-d13c-4e18-a33c-ed0957bc331f | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.2% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 14fbd538-4a0a-41e3-bcc8-c3b22f3f4343 | c41a5b53-554b-47ff-a17d-a74556845487 | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.21% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 5a56ce97-c376-4cd0-a108-bdaf08d37bab | 308b8a35-3264-45e2-952b-9270738ec0e8 | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
| 5.22% or above | pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH | 88fe7b2a-62f8-49b4-985d-0dd1760947d5 | b81be4cb-fbdf-4b96-ab7f-59bc2585bff9 | Oct 22 20:00Z | Oct 22 20:00Z | — |
Source families: U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-16..2026-10-23. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
- Independent check
- FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
- Measurement
- Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-16..2026-10-23; intraday values not considered
- Rounding
- Yields as published (two decimals)
- Exceptions
- The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
- Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
- Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast
Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.