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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.07% or above” down to 24% from 37%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:12 UTC and 19:56 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 19:56ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

37%24%

5.07% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:12 UTC → 19:56 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.07% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE24%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 20:04Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 27 20:02Z PBE 37% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 27 20:04Z PBE 24% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 20:04Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.07% or above” from 37% to 24% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 26 20:12Z → Oct 27 19:56Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 20:12Z (data cutoff Oct 26 20:12Z) and the one at Oct 27 19:56Z (cutoff Oct 27 19:56Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.07% or above” from 37% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 5% to 4.99%; Business days left from 4 to 3.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-262026-10-27—
Latest official par yield5%4.99%yes
Business days left43yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 19:56ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.07% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 23:06ZOct 25 21:31ZOct 27 19:56Z37%24%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 27 19:56Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 19:56ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.041
Oct 25 15:52ZKalshi mid84
Oct 25 15:56ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 16:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 16:30ZKalshi mid90
Oct 26 04:04ZKalshi mid35
Oct 26 04:14ZKalshi mid30
Oct 26 07:16ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 07:54ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 08:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 08:18ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 08:23ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 09:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 09:02ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 10:06ZKalshi mid40
Oct 26 10:14ZKalshi mid41
Oct 26 10:26ZKalshi mid37
Oct 26 10:46ZKalshi mid37
Oct 26 11:06ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 11:12ZKalshi mid35
Oct 26 11:42ZKalshi mid36
Oct 26 11:46ZKalshi mid37
Oct 26 11:48ZKalshi mid36
Oct 26 12:00ZKalshi mid37
Oct 26 12:06ZKalshi mid36
Oct 26 12:10ZKalshi mid38
Oct 26 12:22ZKalshi mid37
Oct 26 12:28ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 12:34ZKalshi mid35
Oct 26 13:12ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.041
Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.041
Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Oct 27 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 26 20:12ZOct 27 19:56Z
Data cutoffOct 26 20:12ZOct 27 19:56Z
Guidance runs——
PBE37%24%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.07% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b7244966-21b3-4486-9cae-cbc85ebc6d34
Compared with
fd04367f-f26e-4e78-badf-baeab4a11af1
Captured
Oct 27 19:56Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 19:56Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-23..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.06% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.