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RATES · RESOLUTION REPORT

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: 5.05% or above — it happened. How PBE scored.

5.05% or above: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 34%. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 20:04ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

ResultYES5.05% or above
PBE at final34%pbe-rates-path@1.0.0
Market at final—captured with the snapshot
Brier (PBE)0.067n=20

Resolved Oct 30 22:02Z · verified against U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-23..2026-10-30

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.05% or above · RESOLVED

PBE34%
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 20:04Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • Result: 5.05% or above: YES; official check 5.05 percent agrees with the venue.
  • PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 34%.
  • Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.067 (n=20).
  • Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026 resolved with 5.05% or above: YES. The venue settled at Oct 30 22:02Z (expiration value 5.05); PropBetEdge's independent check — U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-23..2026-10-30 — recorded 5.05 percent, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)
OutcomeResultFirst publishedT−24 hFinal pre-resolution
5.02% or aboveYES67%52%52%
5.03% or aboveYES61%46%46%
5.04% or aboveYES56%40%40%
5.05% or aboveYES51%34%34%
5.06% or aboveNO46%57%7%
5.07% or aboveNO41%51%5%
5.08% or aboveNO37%43%5%
5.09% or aboveNO33%36%3%
5.1% or aboveNO29%30%2%
5.11% or aboveNO27%25%2%
5.12% or aboveNO23%20%1%
5.13% or aboveNO21%17%1%
5.14% or aboveNO19%14%1%
5.15% or aboveNO16%12%1%
5.16% or aboveNO14%9%1%
5.17% or aboveNO13%8%1%
5.18% or aboveNO11%6%1%
5.19% or aboveNO9%5%1%
5.2% or aboveNO8%4%1%
5.21% or aboveNO7%3%1%
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 20:04ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1
FORECAST PATH“5.05% or above” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 23:06ZOct 25 21:35ZOct 27 20:04ZFirst publishedFinal pre-resolution + T−24 hFinal pre-resolution + T−24 hPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 51% · Oct 23 23:06ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 46% · Oct 26 19:56ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 51% · Oct 26 19:58ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 46% · Oct 26 20:06ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 51% · Oct 26 20:10ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 46% · Oct 26 20:12ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 34% · Oct 27 19:56ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 46% · Oct 27 20:02ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 34% · Oct 27 20:04Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 20:04ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 20 contracts was 0.067. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts
CheckpointMethodPBEMarketn (PBE)n (market)
First publishedBrier0.085—200
First publishedLog loss0.318—200
T−24 hBrier0.125—200
T−24 hLog loss0.384—200
Final pre-resolutionBrier0.067—200
Final pre-resolutionLog loss0.189—200
Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 30 22:02ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 20 resolved contracts to the model's live record (219 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

OutcomeModelSnapshotCompared withCapturedData cutoffMarket
5.02% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH79333510-3c7b-4cfb-bf1e-c02f0ba28e5bb99264b7-b439-473f-89c0-6aaf6d848081Oct 27 20:04ZOct 27 20:04Z—
5.03% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHa28ca248-ff23-436f-8c0c-5cf8d6851e9ea8e767b7-0865-4968-b7a5-cffd31370b9bOct 27 20:04ZOct 27 20:04Z—
5.04% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHb91457ef-c9bf-417f-a065-9cea75bc229e64892bbe-6f8b-418b-8c6f-46eea67e6feaOct 27 20:04ZOct 27 20:04Z—
5.05% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHe9e2ae3e-c809-4d7c-abd5-e7bbfeaafcfb8ac5eabc-456a-4dad-85ca-c9943b277e69Oct 27 20:04ZOct 27 20:04Z—
5.06% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHab4ec113-a869-4f74-8136-699c7d8c12d8c0460644-6c12-42cf-952e-9162e2901832Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.07% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHdb433a6f-bb2e-4bcd-89f9-2b67b1e8b210d0e043c6-83d3-41ff-a863-93ecbe573278Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.08% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHfd2a5ccb-f49f-4433-8369-472faaf8b11e3e1d8f23-b4ef-4c7a-9c55-918a041bac51Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.09% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHdc458317-2787-4d65-a64a-cab8c336bc44cebda65c-8e1e-4bbc-8748-33bc5a5a7ca0Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.1% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH70338ee6-4ea5-4aba-8d9a-4443e14beeb23be27b68-244c-4e92-a28a-9f4a8ff2e93cOct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.11% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH0ccb4828-1fcb-49e1-8db4-71a9c2628a14ca814abb-3f45-4f6d-80f6-58c45daa68b8Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.12% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHf4ca45f5-0af0-45ee-a0a5-45ee0ee34486c576fc67-53b5-4760-9e85-c061117156d0Oct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—
5.13% or abovepbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH77c325f9-0029-4916-bdd3-9b1225fd66abbb9b5e1a-420e-4125-9dbc-74148cf5c62fOct 29 20:00ZOct 29 20:00Z—

Source families: U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period high 2026-10-23..2026-10-30. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-23..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.04% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.