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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026: PBE moves “4.86% or above” up to 69% from 28%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:10 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 10 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

28%69%

4.86% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:10 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move+41 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?

4.86% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE69%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 10 21:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:52Z PBE 28% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:54Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 20:54Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:08Z PBE 28% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:10Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:10Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:16Z PBE 28% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:18Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:18Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.86% or above” from 28% to 69% (+41 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 21:10Z → Nov 10 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 21:10Z (data cutoff Nov 9 21:10Z) and the one at Nov 10 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 10 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.86% or above” from 28% to 69%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.6 bp to 6.0 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.67% to 4.81%; Period high/low so far from 4.74% to 4.81%; Business days left from 13 to 12.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.6 bp6.0 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-092026-11-10—
Latest official par yield4.67%4.81%yes
Period high/low so far4.74%4.81%yes
Business days left1312yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.86% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:00ZNov 6 00:25ZNov 10 20:50Z28%69%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 47% · Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 47% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 47% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Nov 10 20:50Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.047
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.047
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.047
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.016
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.024
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE28%69%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.86% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
83fc72f1-701c-4ca7-a34b-336e60e671c3
Compared with
f3ae7304-cae8-493d-bccf-16de0124a02e
Captured
Nov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 10 20:50Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.