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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026: PBE moves “4.96% or above” up to 80% from 39%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:18 UTC and 20:52 UTC on Nov 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 12 20:52ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

39%80%

4.96% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:18 UTC → 20:52 UTC

Move+41 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?

4.96% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE80%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 12 21:06Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 12 20:58Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:02Z PBE 80% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:02Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:04Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 12 21:06Z PBE 80% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 21:06Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.96% or above” from 39% to 80% (+41 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 21:18Z → Nov 12 20:52Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 10 21:18Z (data cutoff Nov 10 21:18Z) and the one at Nov 12 20:52Z (cutoff Nov 12 20:52Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.96% or above” from 39% to 80%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 6.0 bp to 6.4 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.81% to 4.95%; Period high/low so far from 4.81% to 4.95%; Business days left from 12 to 11.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)6.0 bp6.4 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-102026-11-12—
Latest official par yield4.81%4.95%yes
Period high/low so far4.81%4.95%yes
Business days left1211yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.96% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:00ZNov 7 00:26ZNov 12 20:52Z39%80%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 11% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 12 20:52Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 12 20:52ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.027
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039
Nov 12 13:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 12 13:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 12 13:28ZKalshi mid53
Nov 12 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.027
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.027
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.022
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.011
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 10 21:18ZNov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoffNov 10 21:18ZNov 12 20:52Z
Guidance runs——
PBE39%80%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.96% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
1235ab79-3228-402f-b4e1-df106ab0e305
Compared with
0693edd0-6289-46eb-9d5e-3c1656d7c69a
Captured
Nov 12 20:52Z
Data cutoff
Nov 12 20:52Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.