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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026: PBE moves “5.01% or above” up to 73% from 63%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:06 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 13 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

63%73%

5.01% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:06 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?

5.01% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE73%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 13 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 13 21:00Z PBE 63% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 13 21:02Z PBE 73% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 13 21:02Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 13 21:08Z PBE 63% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 13 21:10Z PBE 73% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 13 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.01% or above” from 63% to 73% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 12 21:06Z → Nov 13 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 12 21:06Z (data cutoff Nov 12 21:06Z) and the one at Nov 13 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 13 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.01% or above” from 63% to 73%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 6.4 bp to 6.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.95% to 4.98%; Period high/low so far from 4.95% to 4.98%; Business days left from 11 to 10.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)6.4 bp6.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-122026-11-13—
Latest official par yield4.95%4.98%yes
Period high/low so far4.95%4.98%yes
Business days left1110yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 13 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.01% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:00ZNov 7 12:24ZNov 13 20:48Z63%73%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 7% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 12 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 12 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 12 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 12 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 12 21:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 73% · Nov 13 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 13 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 10 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08
Nov 10 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 10 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08
Nov 10 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 10 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08
Nov 10 21:18ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 12 13:14ZKalshi mid31
Nov 12 13:20ZKalshi mid32
Nov 12 13:26ZKalshi mid31
Nov 12 13:28ZKalshi mid32
Nov 12 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 12 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 12 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 12 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.028
Nov 12 21:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 13 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.073
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.012
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.012
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.019
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.012
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.05
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.012
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.05
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.05
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.05
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.05
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.07
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.08

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 12 21:06ZNov 13 20:48Z
Data cutoffNov 12 21:06ZNov 13 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE63%73%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.01% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
a8835d9d-0379-471f-b0f1-fcdc3f8d6184
Compared with
9484d92d-4b0d-45ad-bfed-b8aea2cae8d0
Captured
Nov 13 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 13 20:48Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.00% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.