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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026: PBE moves “5.09% or above” down to 67% from 79%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:50 UTC and 19:54 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 6 19:54ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

79%67%

5.09% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:50 UTC → 19:54 UTC

Move−12 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

5.09% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE60%−7 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 8 20:14Z PBE 52% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.09% or above” from 79% to 67% (−12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 19:50Z → Oct 6 19:54Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 19:50Z (data cutoff Oct 5 19:50Z) and the one at Oct 6 19:54Z (cutoff Oct 6 19:54Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.09% or above” from 79% to 67%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.5 bp to 5.4 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.06% to 5.03%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.5 bp5.4 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-052026-10-06—
Latest official par yield5.06%5.03%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.09% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 5 07:42ZOct 6 19:54Z79%67%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 79% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Oct 6 19:54Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Oct 5 16:06ZKalshi mid90
Oct 5 16:08ZKalshi mid91
Oct 5 16:36ZKalshi mid89
Oct 5 16:44ZKalshi mid91
Oct 5 16:52ZKalshi mid90
Oct 5 16:56ZKalshi mid91
Oct 5 16:58ZKalshi mid92
Oct 5 17:26ZKalshi mid95
Oct 5 17:34ZKalshi mid95
Oct 5 17:56ZKalshi mid95
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.079
Oct 6 00:04ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 00:06ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 00:36ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 00:42ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 00:58ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 01:01ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 01:04ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 01:08ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 01:18ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 01:20ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 01:24ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 01:40ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 01:42ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 01:44ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 01:48ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 02:01ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 02:02ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 02:14ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 02:16ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 02:18ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 02:24ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 02:36ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 02:52ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 02:54ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 02:56ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 03:01ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 03:02ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 03:24ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 03:26ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 03:28ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 03:31ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 03:44ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 03:46ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 03:48ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 03:50ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 04:01ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 04:04ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 04:06ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 04:09ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 04:26ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 04:34ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 04:42ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 05:01ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 05:02ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 05:04ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 05:10ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 05:31ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 05:42ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 06:01ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 06:18ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 06:21ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 06:26ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 06:31ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 06:56ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 07:50ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 08:11ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoffOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Guidance runs——
PBE79%67%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.09% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
3eaab54f-851a-4239-b60a-d931fcc5d5a0
Compared with
5b60133b-53c2-4560-8f5a-3c45b311ec4e
Captured
Oct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoff
Oct 6 19:54Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.