PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.85% or below” up to 72% from 61%

New Treasury data reached the model between 04:02 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

61%72%

4.85% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 04:02 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture74%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

4.85% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE72%0 pts since publication
Kalshi74%+9 pts since publication
Gap−2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 20:58Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:50Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:52Z PBE 72% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:52Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:56Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:58Z PBE 72% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.85% or below” from 61% to 72% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 23:59Z → Nov 2 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 65% to 74%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 04:02Z (data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z) and the one at Nov 2 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 2 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.85% or below” from 61% to 72%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.94% to 4.91%; Period high/low so far from — to 4.91%; Business days left from 19 to 18.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-302026-11-02—
Latest official par yield4.94%4.91%yes
Period high/low so far—4.91%yes
Business days left1918yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.85% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 2 00:25ZNov 2 20:48Z61%72%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 2 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 04:24ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 05:46ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 06:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 10:30ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 11:30ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 12:10ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid62
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 1 18:24ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 18:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 19:30ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 21:16ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 00:04ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 01:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 02:26ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 03:54ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 05:26ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 06:10ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 07:26ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 07:28ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 07:34ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 07:38ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 08:34ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 08:36ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 09:08ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 10:08ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 10:54ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 11:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 11:18ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 11:32ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 11:40ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 11:52ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 12:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 12:22ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 12:28ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 13:04ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 13:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 13:18ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 13:50ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 13:52ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 14:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 14:26ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 14:32ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 14:38ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 14:40ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 16:12ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 16:22ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 16:32ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 17:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 17:20ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 17:46ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 17:48ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 18:28ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 18:46ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 18:54ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 19:28ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 20:22ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.072

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 65% to 74%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 04:02ZNov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoffOct 30 23:59ZNov 2 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE61%72%
Market at capture65%74%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.85% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f841c564-b5e4-48a1-b768-90cf8489fefb
Compared with
2b728c31-7672-4e78-82ba-49babf479339
Captured
Nov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 20:48Z
Market observation
74% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.86% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.