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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.87% or below” down to 61% from 78%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:58 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 3. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 3 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

78%61%

4.87% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:58 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move−17 pts
Market at capture59%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

4.87% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE61%0 pts since publication
Kalshi72%−8 pts since publication
Gap−11

RESEARCH PBE Nov 3 21:14Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:54Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:56Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 20:56Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:58Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:00Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:00Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:02Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:04Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:04Z
  7. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:12Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  8. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:14Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.87% or below” from 78% to 61% (−17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 20:58Z → Nov 3 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 80% to 59%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 20:58Z (data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z) and the one at Nov 3 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 3 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.87% or below” from 78% to 61%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.91% to 4.95%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-022026-11-03—
Latest official par yield4.91%4.95%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.87% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 2 12:25ZNov 3 20:48Z78%61%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 05:46ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 06:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 12:54ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 18:24ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 23:36ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 00:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 00:12ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 02:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 03:04ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 07:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 08:34ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 10:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 11:18ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 11:32ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 11:52ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 12:24ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:28ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:44ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 13:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 13:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:32ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 13:58ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:26ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:32ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 14:38ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:02ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 15:34ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 15:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 16:12ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 16:14ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 16:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 16:32ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 16:44ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:58ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 17:20ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:30ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:46ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:10ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 18:14ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 18:18ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 18:28ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 18:46ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 18:54ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 19:38ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:44ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 20:08ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 00:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 00:46ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 02:14ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 03:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 03:34ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 05:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 06:48ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 07:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 08:12ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 08:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 08:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 09:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 09:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 10:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:30ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 11:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 11:34ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 11:38ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 11:40ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 12:04ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 12:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 13:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 3 13:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 13:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 13:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:38ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 13:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 13:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 14:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:24ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 14:34ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 15:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 15:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:26ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:34ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:50ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 16:58ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 17:40ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 18:52ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 18:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 19:32ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 20:02ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:06ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 80% to 59%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoffNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE78%61%
Market at capture80%59%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.87% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
73038d5e-bf35-4311-bfdc-cd73392c1443
Compared with
a7b665b4-d1c4-4506-9f70-c6b579fa36e8
Captured
Nov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 3 20:48Z
Market observation
59% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.