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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.87% or below” up to 79% from 61%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:14 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 4 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

61%79%

4.87% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:14 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move+18 pts
Market at capture82%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

4.87% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE79%0 pts since publication
Kalshi81%+23 pts since publication
Gap−2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 4 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:52Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:58Z PBE 79% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 20:58Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:08Z PBE 61% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:10Z PBE 79% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.87% or below” from 61% to 79% (+18 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 3 21:14Z → Nov 4 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 58% to 82%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 3 21:14Z (data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z) and the one at Nov 4 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 4 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.87% or below” from 61% to 79%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.95% to 4.9%; Period high/low so far from 4.91% to 4.9%; Business days left from 17 to 16.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-032026-11-04—
Latest official par yield4.95%4.9%yes
Period high/low so far4.91%4.9%yes
Business days left1716yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.87% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 3 00:26ZNov 4 20:50Z61%79%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 61% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 79% · Nov 4 20:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 05:46ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 06:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 12:54ZKalshi mid70
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 1 18:24ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 1 23:36ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 00:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 00:12ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 02:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 03:04ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 07:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 08:34ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 10:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 11:18ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 11:32ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 11:52ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 12:24ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:28ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 12:44ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 13:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 13:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:32ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 13:58ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:26ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 14:32ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 14:38ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:02ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:32ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 15:34ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 15:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 16:12ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 16:14ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 16:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 16:32ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 16:44ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:58ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 17:20ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:30ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:46ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:10ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 18:14ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 18:18ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 18:28ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:40ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 18:46ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 18:54ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 19:38ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:44ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 20:08ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 00:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 00:46ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 02:14ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 03:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 03:34ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 05:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 06:48ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 07:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 08:12ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 08:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 08:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 09:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 09:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 10:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:30ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 11:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 11:34ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 11:38ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 11:40ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 12:04ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 12:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 13:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 3 13:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 13:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 13:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:38ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 13:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 13:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 14:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:24ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 14:34ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 15:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 15:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:26ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:34ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:38ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:50ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 16:58ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 17:40ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 18:52ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 18:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 19:32ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 20:02ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:06ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 3 20:52ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 3 21:04ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.061
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 00:14ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 00:18ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 00:20ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 00:28ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 00:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 00:32ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 00:38ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 00:42ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 00:46ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 00:56ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 01:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 01:06ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 01:18ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 01:20ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 01:22ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 01:38ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 01:42ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 01:50ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 01:54ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 02:06ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 02:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 02:14ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 02:18ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 02:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 02:28ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 03:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 03:18ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 03:22ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 03:24ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 03:40ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 03:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 04:36ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 04:38ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 04:40ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 04:44ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 04:46ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 04:48ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 04:52ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 05:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 05:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 07:52ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 08:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 08:14ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 08:16ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 09:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 09:20ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 09:26ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 09:40ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 10:02ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 10:08ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 10:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 10:18ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 10:22ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 12:08ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 12:10ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 12:12ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 12:22ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:02ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 13:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:08ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 13:18ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 13:40ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 13:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 13:48ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 13:56ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 14:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 14:18ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 14:26ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 14:28ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 14:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 14:38ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 14:48ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 14:52ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 15:10ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 15:12ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 15:16ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 15:18ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 15:26ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 15:38ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 15:40ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 15:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 16:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 16:22ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 16:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 16:46ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 16:56ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 16:58ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:02ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 17:06ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:08ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 17:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:16ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:18ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 17:24ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 17:28ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:52ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 18:04ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 18:12ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:16ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 18:18ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 18:36ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 18:46ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 18:52ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:56ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 19:02ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 19:06ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 19:16ZKalshi mid84
Nov 4 19:18ZKalshi mid85
Nov 4 19:22ZKalshi mid84
Nov 4 19:36ZKalshi mid85
Nov 4 19:38ZKalshi mid85
Nov 4 19:58ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 20:02ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:12ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 20:16ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 20:18ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 20:26ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.079

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 58% to 82%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE61%79%
Market at capture58%82%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.87% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
942844f5-a380-4527-92d7-856c400a027b
Compared with
300eab61-9abb-4d68-8463-79cf66f2f57f
Captured
Nov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 4 20:50Z
Market observation
82% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.