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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.83% or below” down to 35% from 69%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:10 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 10 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

69%35%

4.83% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:10 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move−34 pts
Market at capture23%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

4.83% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE35%0 pts since publication
Kalshi25%−45 pts since publication
Gap+10

RESEARCH PBE Nov 10 21:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:52Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:54Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 20:54Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:08Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:10Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:10Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:16Z PBE 69% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:18Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:18Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.83% or below” from 69% to 35% (−34 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 21:10Z → Nov 10 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 70% to 23%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 21:10Z (data cutoff Nov 9 21:10Z) and the one at Nov 10 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 10 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.83% or below” from 69% to 35%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.2 bp to 5.4 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.88% to 4.98%; Business days left from 13 to 12.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.2 bp5.4 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-092026-11-10—
Latest official par yield4.88%4.98%yes
Business days left1312yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.83% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 6 00:26ZNov 10 20:50Z69%35%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 55% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 55% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 55% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 35% · Nov 10 20:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.055
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 04:24ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 05:46ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 06:06ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 10:30ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 11:30ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 12:10ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 1 18:24ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 18:30ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 19:30ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 1 21:16ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 10 00:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 01:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 02:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 03:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 04:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 05:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 06:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 07:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 08:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 09:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 10:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 11:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 12:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 14:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 10 14:06ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 14:12ZKalshi mid37
Nov 10 14:16ZKalshi mid36
Nov 10 14:18ZKalshi mid32
Nov 10 14:20ZKalshi mid30
Nov 10 14:26ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 14:28ZKalshi mid34
Nov 10 14:46ZKalshi mid28
Nov 10 14:52ZKalshi mid30
Nov 10 14:58ZKalshi mid29
Nov 10 15:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 10 15:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 10 15:04ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 15:06ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 15:22ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 15:56ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 16:06ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 16:22ZKalshi mid26
Nov 10 16:38ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 16:40ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 16:42ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 16:50ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 16:56ZKalshi mid20
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 10 17:06ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 17:10ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 17:26ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 18:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 18:06ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 18:12ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 18:56ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 19:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 19:06ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 19:10ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 20:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 10 20:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 10 20:36ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.035
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 00:04ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 01:16ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 02:26ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 03:54ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 05:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 06:10ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 07:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 07:28ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 07:34ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 07:38ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 08:34ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 08:36ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 10:02ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 10:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 11:14ZKalshi mid58
Nov 2 11:18ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 11:32ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 11:40ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 12:28ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 2 13:12ZKalshi mid60
Nov 2 13:18ZKalshi mid61
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid62
Nov 2 13:50ZKalshi mid61
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 14:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 14:10ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 14:40ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 14:58ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 2 16:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 16:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 16:32ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 17:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 17:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 17:46ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 17:48ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid71
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 18:54ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 19:44ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.055
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.055
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 00:42ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 01:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 03:16ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 07:54ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 08:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 09:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 11:08ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 11:32ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 11:38ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 11:58ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 13:04ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 13:28ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 13:42ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 13:46ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 13:50ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 14:14ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 14:24ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 14:30ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 15:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid43
Nov 3 15:26ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 15:34ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 15:38ZKalshi mid44
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 15:44ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 15:50ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 15:56ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid50
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid52
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 18:46ZKalshi mid45
Nov 3 18:52ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 18:54ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 19:02ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 3 20:02ZKalshi mid49
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 3 20:52ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 3 21:04ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 00:18ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 00:20ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 00:22ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 00:28ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 00:48ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 01:04ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 01:06ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 01:14ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 01:20ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 01:22ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 01:24ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 01:26ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 01:28ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 01:38ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 01:42ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 01:50ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 02:06ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 02:10ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 02:18ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 02:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 02:28ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 02:54ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 03:16ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 03:18ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 03:22ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 03:28ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 03:40ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 04:36ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 04:44ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 04:46ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 04:48ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 04:52ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 05:06ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 08:04ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 09:20ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 09:26ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 09:28ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 10:04ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 10:18ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 12:10ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 13:02ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 13:14ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 13:48ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 14:18ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 14:48ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:58ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 15:18ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:26ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 16:20ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 16:22ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 16:32ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 16:36ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 16:44ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 16:56ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 17:02ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 17:06ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 17:16ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 17:26ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 17:52ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 18:12ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 18:46ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 18:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 19:02ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 19:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 19:18ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 19:36ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 19:58ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 20:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 20:12ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 20:16ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 4 21:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 21:06ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.050
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 4 22:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 23:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 23:34ZKalshi mid70
Nov 5 00:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 5 01:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 5 01:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 5 01:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 5 01:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 01:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 01:26ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 01:34ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 01:36ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 01:58ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 02:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 02:06ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 02:08ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 02:10ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 02:38ZKalshi mid72
Nov 5 02:50ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 03:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 03:32ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 03:36ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 12:02ZKalshi mid70
Nov 5 12:22ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 12:50ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 13:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 13:08ZKalshi mid68
Nov 5 13:10ZKalshi mid68
Nov 5 13:12ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 13:40ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 13:42ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 14:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 14:10ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 14:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 14:14ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 14:16ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 14:18ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 14:20ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 14:28ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 14:30ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 14:34ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 14:46ZKalshi mid61
Nov 5 14:54ZKalshi mid71
Nov 5 14:58ZKalshi mid72
Nov 5 15:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 15:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 5 15:10ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 15:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 15:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 15:16ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 15:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 15:22ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 15:26ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 15:30ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 15:32ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 15:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 15:36ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 15:38ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 15:46ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 15:50ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 15:56ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 15:58ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 16:10ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 16:14ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 16:16ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 16:20ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 16:22ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 16:28ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 16:30ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 16:34ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 16:46ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 16:48ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 16:50ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 16:54ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 16:56ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 17:04ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 17:10ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 17:18ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 17:20ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 17:22ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 17:26ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 17:34ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 17:36ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 17:44ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 18:02ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 18:04ZKalshi mid93
Nov 5 18:06ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 18:10ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 18:22ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 18:24ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 18:26ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 19:20ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 19:24ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 19:28ZKalshi mid93
Nov 5 19:30ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 19:34ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 19:38ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 19:44ZKalshi mid93
Nov 5 19:46ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 19:52ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 20:02ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 20:20ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 20:22ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 5 20:50ZKalshi mid91
Nov 5 20:52ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 20:54ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 20:56ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 20:58ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 5 21:42ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 21:44ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 22:02ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 22:10ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 22:12ZKalshi mid92
Nov 5 22:46ZKalshi mid94
Nov 5 22:50ZKalshi mid93
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid94
Nov 5 23:02ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 23:04ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 23:06ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 23:10ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 23:20ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 00:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 00:02ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 00:12ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 05:10ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 05:46ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 06:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 06:14ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 12:28ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 14:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 14:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 14:10ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 14:14ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 14:16ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 14:20ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 14:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 14:34ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 14:36ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 15:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 15:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 15:10ZKalshi mid75
Nov 6 15:14ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 15:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 15:26ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 15:34ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 15:38ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 15:44ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 15:46ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 15:50ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 15:54ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 15:56ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 16:00ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 16:06ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 16:08ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 16:10ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 16:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 16:20ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 16:24ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 16:26ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 16:30ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 16:44ZKalshi mid89
Nov 6 16:50ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 16:56ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 17:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 6 17:04ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 17:06ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 17:16ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 17:20ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 17:30ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 17:38ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 17:44ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 17:50ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 18:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 18:04ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 18:10ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 18:18ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 18:20ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 18:24ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 18:32ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 18:40ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 18:42ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 18:46ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 18:48ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 18:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 18:52ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 18:54ZKalshi mid83
Nov 6 19:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 19:04ZKalshi mid83
Nov 6 19:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 19:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 19:20ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 19:24ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 19:26ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 19:28ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 19:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 19:40ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 19:44ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 19:46ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 19:50ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 20:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 20:10ZKalshi mid74
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 20:56ZKalshi mid73
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 21:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 22:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 6 22:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 6 22:14ZKalshi mid74
Nov 6 22:40ZKalshi mid74
Nov 6 23:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 00:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 01:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 02:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 03:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 04:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 04:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 7 04:22ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 05:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 06:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 07:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 07:16ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 08:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 09:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 10:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 11:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 12:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 13:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 14:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 15:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 21:02ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 21:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 7 21:30ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 22:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 7 23:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 00:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 01:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 02:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 03:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 03:06ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 04:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 05:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 05:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 06:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 07:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 08:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 09:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 10:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 11:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 12:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 13:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 14:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 15:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 16:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 16:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 17:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 18:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 19:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 20:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 20:32ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 21:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 22:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 23:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 23:50ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 23:52ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 00:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 01:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 01:42ZKalshi mid73
Nov 9 01:50ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 02:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 03:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 04:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 05:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 06:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 07:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 07:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 07:20ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 08:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 08:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 09:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 10:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 11:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 11:14ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 11:16ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 12:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 12:02ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 13:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 13:04ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 13:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 13:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 13:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 13:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 13:40ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 13:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 13:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 14:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 14:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 14:10ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 14:12ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 14:16ZKalshi mid84
Nov 9 14:26ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 14:30ZKalshi mid86
Nov 9 14:32ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 14:34ZKalshi mid86
Nov 9 14:36ZKalshi mid87
Nov 9 14:50ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 14:56ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 15:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 15:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 15:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 15:20ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 15:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 9 15:36ZKalshi mid71
Nov 9 15:46ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 15:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 9 16:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 16:06ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 16:10ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 16:16ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 16:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 16:26ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 16:30ZKalshi mid68
Nov 9 16:56ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 17:02ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 17:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 9 17:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 17:30ZKalshi mid64
Nov 9 17:46ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 18:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 18:14ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 18:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 18:26ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 18:50ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 19:02ZKalshi mid66
Nov 9 19:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 19:08ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 19:18ZKalshi mid64
Nov 9 19:26ZKalshi mid65
Nov 9 19:40ZKalshi mid67
Nov 9 19:42ZKalshi mid68
Nov 9 19:48ZKalshi mid68
Nov 9 19:56ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 19:58ZKalshi mid71
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 9 20:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 9 20:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 9 20:14ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 20:18ZKalshi mid69
Nov 9 20:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 9 23:16ZKalshi mid70

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 70% to 23%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE69%35%
Market at capture70%23%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.83% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
de398061-3872-4cf1-99b9-4bd683038252
Compared with
c80ae669-cb7e-40c7-976d-923650a3a47e
Captured
Nov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 10 20:50Z
Market observation
23% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.84% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.