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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026: PBE moves “4.89% or below” down to 35% from 65%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:58 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 3. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 3 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

65%35%

4.89% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:58 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move−30 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?

4.89% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE35%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 3 21:14Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:54Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:56Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 20:56Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 3 20:58Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:00Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:00Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:02Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:04Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:04Z
  7. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:12Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 23:59Z
  8. UPDATE · Nov 3 21:14Z PBE 35% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.89% or below” from 65% to 35% (−30 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 20:58Z → Nov 3 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 20:58Z (data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z) and the one at Nov 3 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 3 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.89% or below” from 65% to 35%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.91% to 4.95%; Business days left from 4 to 3.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-022026-11-03—
Latest official par yield4.91%4.95%yes
Business days left43yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.89% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 23:06ZNov 1 21:57ZNov 3 20:48Z65%35%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 54% · Oct 30 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 54% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 54% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 35% · Nov 3 20:48Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 3 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.054
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.054
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.035
Oct 30 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.054

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoffNov 2 20:58ZNov 3 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE65%35%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.89% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
be891dfd-2dd2-4d8a-a47a-595407e7b4d4
Compared with
7ff55d20-9455-40ce-9846-7b7d4d9122b1
Captured
Nov 3 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 3 20:48Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-30..2026-11-06; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.90% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.