PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
RATES · RESOLUTION REPORT

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026: 5.1% or below — it happened. How PBE scored.

5.1% or below: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 10%. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published Model data as of Oct 14 20:02ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

ResultYES5.1% or below
PBE at final10%pbe-rates-path@1.0.0
Market at final—captured with the snapshot
Brier (PBE)0.289n=20

Resolved Oct 21 18:08Z · verified against U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-09..2026-10-16

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026?

5.1% or below · RESOLVED

PBE10%
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 14 20:02Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • Result: 5.1% or below: YES; official check 5.09 percent agrees with the venue.
  • PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 10%.
  • Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.289 (n=20).
  • Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 16, 2026 resolved with 5.1% or below: YES. The venue settled at Oct 21 18:08Z (expiration value 5.09); PropBetEdge's independent check — U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-09..2026-10-16 — recorded 5.09 percent, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)
OutcomeResultFirst publishedT−24 hFinal pre-resolution
5.03% or belowNO3%2%8%
5.04% or belowNO3%2%12%
5.05% or belowNO4%3%16%
5.06% or belowNO5%3%22%
5.07% or belowNO6%5%29%
5.08% or belowNO7%6%36%
5.09% or belowYES8%8%44%
5.1% or belowYES10%10%10%
5.11% or belowYES12%13%13%
5.12% or belowYES14%17%17%
5.13% or belowYES17%22%22%
5.14% or belowYES21%28%28%
5.15% or belowYES25%35%35%
5.16% or belowYES29%43%43%
5.17% or belowYES34%51%51%
5.18% or belowYES39%58%58%
5.19% or belowYES46%58%58%
5.2% or belowYES52%65%65%
5.21% or belowYES58%58%58%
5.22% or belowYES64%64%64%
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 14 20:02ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1
FORECAST PATH“5.1% or below” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9 23:06ZOct 12 09:34ZOct 14 20:02ZFirst publishedT−24 h + Final pre-resolutionT−24 h + Final pre-resolutionPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 10% · Oct 9 23:06ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 11% · Oct 13 20:14ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 10% · Oct 14 20:02Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 14 20:02ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 20 contracts was 0.289. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts
CheckpointMethodPBEMarketn (PBE)n (market)
First publishedBrier0.360—200
First publishedLog loss0.980—200
T−24 hBrier0.300—200
T−24 hLog loss0.836—200
Final pre-resolutionBrier0.289—200
Final pre-resolutionLog loss0.811—200
Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 21 18:08ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 20 resolved contracts to the model's live record (80 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

OutcomeModelSnapshotCompared withCapturedData cutoffMarket
5.03% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH9cab7d88-3f9c-4f88-b2b1-fefe3930b15e9e89d014-e593-409e-a0a8-e23a8e8d1830Oct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.04% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH98e76e66-820a-448e-8638-30565a3294b46b5cd78e-6b2e-4553-a04d-b5ce6a3d3cd7Oct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.05% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH3a6c71ae-95c4-4073-afa9-b8c76a840440a126c89b-c818-43c9-88b9-99af618030d6Oct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.06% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH439137bd-908c-4b46-a691-4f01e6b46a191f78bd94-742a-4618-9a3c-97d2a2f1101eOct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.07% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH0fa50d28-5165-470e-98a6-41b8e197ddb28353ccc5-b9e6-4e21-a737-6b12142f7dfbOct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.08% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH093779fa-f6a5-4c31-8417-ffe33766f092150d446c-808c-42ef-88f4-a80253315701Oct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.09% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHaae03342-ffcf-4e2a-9cfe-f66743aef715a884b75d-fe74-4b53-a272-b9194039443cOct 15 19:59ZOct 15 19:59Z—
5.1% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH97579ff1-cf84-444d-97cb-8eb3cc9de4ea90fbcbf8-dd74-43df-ba5f-7e25d3853b2dOct 14 20:02ZOct 14 20:02Z—
5.11% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHa1e0ad99-b798-4f1c-97f4-d428d3cd2ae55e8dacdc-ac5b-477e-b946-402341b1be08Oct 14 20:02ZOct 14 20:02Z—
5.12% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH02bbffc5-8536-43e2-a6f4-7dc5616e3d5dd61a784f-d795-45fa-af40-d45ef365384aOct 14 20:02ZOct 14 20:02Z—
5.13% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHb218d290-efe5-49e2-a432-46eb672c4b144249eb73-dc3d-4528-9fad-2cfb1ff050ddOct 14 20:02ZOct 14 20:02Z—
5.14% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH4f5c12ef-4f9a-4353-a5bb-967198946a4a29199fe5-f311-46a1-af1d-aa695e80f668Oct 14 20:02ZOct 14 20:02Z—

Source families: U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-09..2026-10-16. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-09..2026-10-16; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.11% on any business day between Oct 9, 2026 and Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.