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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026: PBE moves “5.07% or below” up to 39% from 29%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:54 UTC and 20:12 UTC on Oct 20. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 20 20:12ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

29%39%

5.07% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:54 UTC → 20:12 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

5.07% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE39%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 20 20:38Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:18Z PBE 29% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:20Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:20Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:26Z PBE 29% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:34Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:34Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:36Z PBE 29% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:38Z PBE 39% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:38Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.07% or below” from 29% to 39% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 19 19:54Z → Oct 20 20:12Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 19 19:54Z (data cutoff Oct 19 19:54Z) and the one at Oct 20 20:12Z (cutoff Oct 20 20:12Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.07% or below” from 29% to 39%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.9 bp to 4.8 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.15% to 5.12%; Business days left from 4 to 3.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.9 bp4.8 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-192026-10-20—
Latest official par yield5.15%5.12%yes
Business days left43yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.07% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 16 23:06ZOct 18 21:39ZOct 20 20:12Z29%39%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 16 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 39% · Oct 20 20:12Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 16 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 18 22:02ZKalshi mid80
Oct 18 22:18ZKalshi mid80
Oct 18 23:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 18 23:10ZKalshi mid80
Oct 18 23:38ZKalshi mid77
Oct 18 23:46ZKalshi mid80
Oct 18 23:50ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 00:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 19 00:48ZKalshi mid79
Oct 19 00:56ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 01:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 01:02ZKalshi mid79
Oct 19 01:48ZKalshi mid80
Oct 19 02:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 02:04ZKalshi mid83
Oct 19 02:10ZKalshi mid84
Oct 19 02:18ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 03:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 04:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 04:54ZKalshi mid82
Oct 19 05:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 19 06:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 19 06:44ZKalshi mid80
Oct 19 07:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 19 07:02ZKalshi mid82
Oct 19 07:08ZKalshi mid81
Oct 19 07:22ZKalshi mid79
Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.029
Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.029
Oct 20 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.039

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoffOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Guidance runs——
PBE29%39%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.07% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
82984140-830d-45a5-8708-6752ec5b5249
Compared with
43f325d2-b8f5-4bfb-8b13-c02e3ea5486b
Captured
Oct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoff
Oct 20 20:12Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-16..2026-10-23; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.08% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.