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RATES · RESOLUTION REPORT

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026: 4.96% or below — it happened. How PBE scored.

4.96% or below: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 1%. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published Model data as of Oct 21 19:58ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

ResultYES4.96% or below
PBE at final1%pbe-rates-path@1.0.0
Market at final—captured with the snapshot
Brier (PBE)0.545n=20

Resolved Oct 26 22:01Z · verified against U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-16..2026-10-23

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

4.96% or below · RESOLVED

PBE1%
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 21 19:58Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • Result: 4.96% or below: YES; official check 4.96 percent agrees with the venue.
  • PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 1%.
  • Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.545 (n=20).
  • Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026 resolved with 4.96% or below: YES. The venue settled at Oct 26 22:01Z (expiration value 4.96); PropBetEdge's independent check — U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-16..2026-10-23 — recorded 4.96 percent, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)
OutcomeResultFirst publishedT−24 hFinal pre-resolution
4.88% or belowNO4%1%8%
4.89% or belowNO5%1%11%
4.9% or belowNO6%1%14%
4.91% or belowNO7%1%19%
4.92% or belowNO8%1%25%
4.93% or belowNO9%1%30%
4.94% or belowNO11%1%37%
4.95% or belowNO13%1%43%
4.96% or belowYES15%1%1%
4.97% or belowYES19%2%2%
4.98% or belowYES22%2%2%
4.99% or belowYES26%3%3%
5% or belowYES30%4%4%
5.01% or belowYES35%4%4%
5.02% or belowYES39%6%6%
5.03% or belowYES45%8%8%
5.04% or belowYES50%9%9%
5.05% or belowYES57%12%12%
5.06% or belowYES62%16%16%
5.07% or belowYES68%21%21%
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 19:58ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1
FORECAST PATH“4.96% or below” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 16 23:06ZOct 19 09:32ZOct 21 19:58ZFirst publishedT−24 h + Final pre-resolutionT−24 h + Final pre-resolutionPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 15% · Oct 16 23:06ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 19 19:50ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 15% · Oct 19 19:52ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 19 19:54ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:12ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:18ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:20ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:26ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:34ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:36ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 20 20:38ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 1% · Oct 21 19:50ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 4% · Oct 21 19:52ZPBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring) 1% · Oct 21 19:58Z
PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 19:58ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 20 contracts was 0.545. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts
CheckpointMethodPBEMarketn (PBE)n (market)
First publishedBrier0.243—200
First publishedLog loss0.660—200
T−24 hBrier0.517—200
T−24 hLog loss1.786—200
Final pre-resolutionBrier0.545—200
Final pre-resolutionLog loss1.893—200
Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 26 22:01ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 20 resolved contracts to the model's live record (163 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

OutcomeModelSnapshotCompared withCapturedData cutoffMarket
4.88% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHea94d6bc-6b02-4d14-91e7-27882b473abaa62ab0b8-f9e7-42f2-b2c9-947588c62a6fOct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.89% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHb68d3898-8e6d-4305-a121-a1a8506e39fd95645344-57cc-43e7-830f-069b34ee1b81Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.9% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHdc8a4b7f-d86e-4cf7-b2b7-ac545a203c527e6207dc-0ab3-4191-a7cf-776ffdb5a8a8Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.91% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH1e258222-32eb-484e-a6a7-3062fdf9e2fe6262a180-3975-43ce-ae7d-683c9beff360Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.92% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHfabd57fa-f3ea-40f6-9077-7224bc91481f55063322-c816-48f1-b146-30b17eb5a8a6Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.93% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH73cd425e-535b-4812-bc92-16ad3d722833e01d4b90-f3cf-443a-939f-b654709eca1cOct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.94% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH1388fa18-dbff-494f-855f-74db14a1fa5a3ff4cd7b-37a7-4583-81ef-c939cd31a8f8Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.95% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH9e8f3dd4-0912-42a4-ab30-d39997b92481d6d392de-98a0-449d-884b-b945fa320e22Oct 22 20:00ZOct 22 20:00Z—
4.96% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHd3dcfbca-a7ab-42e3-bc91-f551ad80242dad788dc1-ede9-4042-8906-729ef8cd2c63Oct 21 19:58ZOct 21 19:58Z—
4.97% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHe9205fb4-6233-45f5-9dc3-f7281492ca97f0f2c0ac-0a65-4c20-b032-6f72e8e161a1Oct 21 19:58ZOct 21 19:58Z—
4.98% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCHdc5bf3fc-38ef-4dd8-b06c-c7269c35f8e0ac5c6779-d260-41aa-a238-45e66d10a693Oct 21 19:58ZOct 21 19:58Z—
4.99% or belowpbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH4e361768-0b05-47e0-b901-fb1b88c325bb3b2db053-5d31-4783-b89b-412752c13cbbOct 21 19:58ZOct 21 19:58Z—

Source families: U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-16..2026-10-23. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-16..2026-10-23; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.97% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.