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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.98% or below” down to 21% from 65%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:04 UTC and 19:50 UTC on Oct 28. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 28 19:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

65%21%

4.98% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:04 UTC → 19:50 UTC

Move−44 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

4.98% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE21%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 28 20:08Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 28 19:52Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 28 19:56Z PBE 21% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 28 19:56Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 28 19:58Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 28 20:00Z PBE 21% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 28 20:00Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 28 20:02Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 28 20:04Z PBE 21% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 28 20:04Z
  7. UPDATE · Oct 28 20:06Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 23:59Z
  8. UPDATE · Oct 28 20:08Z PBE 21% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 28 20:08Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.98% or below” from 65% to 21% (−44 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 20:04Z → Oct 28 19:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 20:04Z (data cutoff Oct 27 20:04Z) and the one at Oct 28 19:50Z (cutoff Oct 28 19:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.98% or below” from 65% to 21%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.4 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.99% to 5.05%; Business days left from 3 to 2.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.4 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-272026-10-28—
Latest official par yield4.99%5.05%yes
Business days left32yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 28 19:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.98% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 23:06ZOct 26 09:28ZOct 28 19:50Z65%21%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Oct 27 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 27 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Oct 27 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 28 19:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 28 19:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 26 01:18ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 02:02ZKalshi mid79
Oct 26 02:06ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 02:49ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 03:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 04:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 04:10ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 05:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 06:04ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 06:16ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 14:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 14:10ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 14:20ZKalshi mid87
Oct 26 14:34ZKalshi mid89
Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 27 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Oct 27 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 27 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Oct 28 09:50ZKalshi mid61
Oct 28 10:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 28 10:14ZKalshi mid60
Oct 28 11:34ZKalshi mid61
Oct 28 11:36ZKalshi mid61
Oct 28 12:20ZKalshi mid62
Oct 28 12:22ZKalshi mid62
Oct 28 12:26ZKalshi mid64
Oct 28 12:38ZKalshi mid64
Oct 28 13:00ZKalshi mid62
Oct 28 13:02ZKalshi mid64
Oct 28 13:04ZKalshi mid64
Oct 28 13:34ZKalshi mid62
Oct 28 13:38ZKalshi mid61
Oct 28 14:00ZKalshi mid62
Oct 28 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.021

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 20:04ZOct 28 19:50Z
Data cutoffOct 27 20:04ZOct 28 19:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE65%21%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.98% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e346f249-9a73-4290-ab65-8521c2fb062b
Compared with
9db7334d-4a0d-43b6-b2ad-dc2a4b1170d6
Captured
Oct 28 19:50Z
Data cutoff
Oct 28 19:50Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-23..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.99% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.