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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “4.97% or below” up to 46% from 17%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:08 UTC and 19:50 UTC on Oct 29. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 29 19:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

17%46%

4.97% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:08 UTC → 19:50 UTC

Move+29 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

4.97% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE46%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 29 20:00Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 29 19:54Z PBE 17% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 28 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 29 20:00Z PBE 46% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 29 20:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.97% or below” from 17% to 46% (+29 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 28 20:08Z → Oct 29 19:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 28 20:08Z (data cutoff Oct 28 20:08Z) and the one at Oct 29 19:50Z (cutoff Oct 29 19:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.97% or below” from 17% to 46%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.4 bp to 5.4 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.05% to 4.98%; Period high/low so far from 4.99% to 4.98%; Business days left from 2 to 1.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.4 bp5.4 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-282026-10-29—
Latest official par yield5.05%4.98%yes
Period high/low so far4.99%4.98%yes
Business days left21yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 29 19:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.97% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 23:06ZOct 26 21:28ZOct 29 19:50Z17%46%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 27 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Oct 27 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 27 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 17% · Oct 28 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 28 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 17% · Oct 28 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 28 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 17% · Oct 28 20:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 28 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 17% · Oct 28 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 28 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 17% · Oct 28 20:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 46% · Oct 29 19:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 29 19:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 23 23:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 25 23:40ZKalshi mid63
Oct 26 02:56ZKalshi mid79
Oct 26 03:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 26 04:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 26 14:16ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Oct 26 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 26 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Oct 26 20:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 26 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Oct 26 23:08ZKalshi mid75
Oct 26 23:10ZKalshi mid76
Oct 26 23:24ZKalshi mid75
Oct 26 23:26ZKalshi mid76
Oct 27 00:34ZKalshi mid66
Oct 27 00:48ZKalshi mid73
Oct 27 02:18ZKalshi mid78
Oct 27 03:08ZKalshi mid81
Oct 27 03:10ZKalshi mid82
Oct 27 03:16ZKalshi mid80
Oct 27 03:32ZKalshi mid83
Oct 27 03:38ZKalshi mid81
Oct 27 03:42ZKalshi mid88
Oct 27 03:44ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 04:08ZKalshi mid87
Oct 27 04:10ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 05:06ZKalshi mid87
Oct 27 05:08ZKalshi mid88
Oct 27 05:50ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 06:00ZKalshi mid88
Oct 27 06:02ZKalshi mid88
Oct 27 06:42ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 07:00ZKalshi mid88
Oct 27 07:16ZKalshi mid87
Oct 27 08:46ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 10:20ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 11:16ZKalshi mid89
Oct 27 11:18ZKalshi mid90
Oct 27 18:18ZKalshi mid90
Oct 27 18:20ZKalshi mid91
Oct 27 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 27 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Oct 27 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 28 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.017
Oct 28 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 28 19:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.017
Oct 28 19:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 28 20:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.017
Oct 28 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 28 20:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.017
Oct 28 20:06ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060
Oct 28 20:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.017
Oct 29 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.046

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 28 20:08ZOct 29 19:50Z
Data cutoffOct 28 20:08ZOct 29 19:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE17%46%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.97% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
7f030391-b4e9-4109-8181-e2ac6be9e514
Compared with
fce56a9b-ef0e-4ede-af53-048bef64d7d9
Captured
Oct 29 19:50Z
Data cutoff
Oct 29 19:50Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-23..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.98% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.