RATES · RESOLUTION REPORT

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: 4.98% or below — it happened. How PBE scored.

4.98% or below: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 21%. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published October 30, 2026 at 22:09 UTCModel data as of Oct 28 20:08ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

ResultYES4.98% or below

PBE at final21%pbe-rates-path@1.0.0

Market at final—captured with the snapshot

Brier (PBE)0.121market 0.672

Resolved Oct 30 22:02Z · verified against U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-23..2026-10-30

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

4.98% or below · RESOLVED

PBE21%

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 28 20:08Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

Result: 4.98% or below: YES; official check 4.94 percent agrees with the venue.
PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 21%.
Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.121, market 0.672 (n=20).
Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026 resolved with 4.98% or below: YES. The venue settled at Oct 30 22:02Z (expiration value 4.94); PropBetEdge's independent check — U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-23..2026-10-30 — recorded 4.94 percent, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)

Outcome	Result	First published	T−24 h	Final pre-resolution
4.79% or below	NO	6%	1%	1%
4.8% or below	NO	7%	1%	1%
4.81% or below	NO	8%	1%	1%
4.82% or below	NO	10%	1%	1%
4.83% or below	NO	11%	1%	1%
4.84% or below	NO	13%	1%	1%
4.85% or below	NO	15%	1%	2%
4.86% or below	NO	18%	2%	2%
4.87% or below	NO	20%	2%	3%
4.88% or below	NO	24%	2%	4%
4.89% or below	NO	27%	3%	6%
4.9% or below	NO	30%	4%	8%
4.91% or below	NO	34%	5%	11%
4.92% or below	NO	38%	6%	15%
4.93% or below	NO	42%	7%	19%
4.94% or below	YES	47%	9%	25% (mkt 18%)
4.95% or below	YES	52%	11%	31%
4.96% or below	YES	58%	14% (mkt 21%)	39%
4.97% or below	YES	63%	17%	46%
4.98% or below	YES	68%	21%	21%

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 28 20:08ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1

FORECAST PATH“4.98% or below” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 28 20:08ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 20 contracts was 0.121 against 0.672 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts

Checkpoint	Method	PBE	Market	n (PBE)	n (market)
First published	Brier	0.087	—	20	0
First published	Log loss	0.317	—	20	0
T−24 h	Brier	0.184	0.632	20	1
T−24 h	Log loss	0.515	1.585	20	1
Final pre-resolution	Brier	0.121	0.672	20	1
Final pre-resolution	Log loss	0.332	1.715	20	1

Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 30 22:02ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 20 resolved contracts to the model's live record (219 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Outcome	Model	Snapshot	Compared with	Captured	Data cutoff	Market
4.79% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	ddaec35c-c8d9-44b0-a25a-9d48edc2d4ea	6bdd7afc-0873-446d-a636-d20a82ea78cc	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.8% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	09cf1be2-5c43-4051-a144-124c99e0594e	b8299725-c316-4781-a7a4-d36ecc022be7	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.81% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	bd117062-854e-4b00-a08b-3febf38492a7	06082465-46de-4080-95eb-a9dcfa72893d	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.82% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	852195b8-69ff-4b98-ad53-146175eeef7d	cc24d0f9-e81a-4cb9-a5a2-638509be029d	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.83% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	e10c025f-831d-4c11-8d20-43f43dd04ff0	754c8b93-6bfc-46e1-861c-690785c469c7	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.84% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	a75bef75-c835-4c62-b4ff-5a47358e0567	bfcf79a8-40ab-4901-90bd-993c61e0c7fc	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.85% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	b85d40f6-f083-4502-b424-b657e9d0c954	53ed77ce-93bb-4bc3-98c0-ae4612270a57	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.86% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	c447658a-f8a7-4ccd-a095-40dc0bec52ef	60596cb2-77ea-4ad6-8266-8e3e6909b45b	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.87% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	4fcebeed-1297-40da-971f-634846c8fa19	a8058d86-e327-4897-8886-00f69e37f039	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.88% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	2f598518-5ebb-462c-8e89-c2536b4c58eb	f8e9115e-b6e2-4118-ba3c-7a06159967b3	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.89% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	ff45ec37-cbec-4bf3-90d3-68310f429a06	935df659-5f04-4b98-a310-a4ae0a6d55bf	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—
4.9% or below	pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH	317b67a4-4354-491c-a455-643c06f2327c	28c9e5bb-5092-4086-a758-e820ed2fb27d	Oct 29 20:00Z	Oct 29 20:00Z	—

Source families: U.S. Treasury Treasury par 10Y period low 2026-10-23..2026-10-30. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check: FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement: Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-23..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding: Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions: The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.99% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.