How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “5.23% or below” down to 29% from 45%
New Treasury data reached the model between 19:54 UTC and 19:54 UTC on Oct 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
5.23% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:54 UTC → 19:54 UTC
How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 9, 2026?
5.23% or below · WINDOW CLOSED · AWAITING SETTLEMENT
Quick read
- pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.23% or below” from 45% to 29% (−16 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Oct 6 19:54Z → Oct 7 19:54Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
- A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Oct 6 19:54Z (data cutoff Oct 6 19:54Z) and the one at Oct 7 19:54Z (cutoff Oct 7 19:54Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.23% or below” from 45% to 29%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.9 bp to 4.9 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.27% to 5.28%; Business days left from 3 to 2.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily volatility (EWMA) | 4.9 bp | 4.9 bp | yes |
| last_published_date | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | — |
| Latest official par yield | 5.27% | 5.28% | yes |
| Business days left | 3 | 2 | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 19:30Z | PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 | 50 |
| Oct 5 19:50Z | PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 | 30 |
| Oct 6 19:54Z | PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 | 45 |
| Oct 7 19:54Z | PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 | 29 |
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Oct 6 19:54Z | Oct 7 19:54Z |
| Data cutoff | Oct 6 19:54Z | Oct 7 19:54Z |
| Guidance runs | — | — |
| PBE | 45% | 29% |
| Market at capture | — | — |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 54fd8aa3-6f51-4a8d-9447-8e904a63605e
- Compared with
- f20274d5-ec15-47ac-baf2-c62dcf57591b
- Captured
- Oct 7 19:54Z
- Data cutoff
- Oct 7 19:54Z
- Source families
- U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
- Resolves on
- U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
- Independent check
- FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
- Measurement
- Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-02..2026-10-09; intraday values not considered
- Rounding
- Yields as published (two decimals)
- Exceptions
- The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
- Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
- Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast
Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.