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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.26% or below” up to 82% from 70%

New Treasury data reached the model between 04:02 UTC and 20:48 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 20:48ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

70%82%

5.26% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 04:02 UTC → 20:48 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture89%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.26% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE82%0 pts since publication
Kalshi86%+13 pts since publication
Gap−4

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 20:58Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:50Z PBE 70% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:52Z PBE 82% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:52Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:56Z PBE 70% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 2 20:58Z PBE 82% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 2 20:58Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.26% or below” from 70% to 82% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 23:59Z → Nov 2 20:48Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 73% to 89%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 04:02Z (data cutoff Oct 30 23:59Z) and the one at Nov 2 20:48Z (cutoff Nov 2 20:48Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.26% or below” from 70% to 82%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.7 bp to 4.7 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.31% to 5.28%; Period high/low so far from — to 5.28%; Business days left from 19 to 18.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.7 bp4.7 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-302026-11-02—
Latest official par yield5.31%5.28%yes
Period high/low so far—5.28%yes
Business days left1918yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.26% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 2 00:25ZNov 2 20:48Z70%82%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 70% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 2 20:48Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 20:48ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.070
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 1 16:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 00:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 03:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:22ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:28ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 08:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 08:48ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 09:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 09:48ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 10:08ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 10:18ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 10:46ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 11:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 11:56ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 12:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 12:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 12:26ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 13:14ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 13:32ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:34ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 14:10ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 14:22ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:36ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 14:38ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 14:42ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:48ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 14:52ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 15:16ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 15:34ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:42ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:46ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 15:56ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:10ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 16:26ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 16:58ZKalshi mid96
Nov 2 19:40ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 19:46ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 19:50ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 19:54ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 20:08ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 20:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 20:26ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 73% to 89%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 04:02ZNov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoffOct 30 23:59ZNov 2 20:48Z
Guidance runs——
PBE70%82%
Market at capture73%89%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.26% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
faafb3e7-26cc-4b20-9fdb-94a4488a5124
Compared with
e18ae99d-dbbe-4410-82a5-0b8596b60791
Captured
Nov 2 20:48Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 20:48Z
Market observation
89% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 30-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS30 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 30-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.27% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.