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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.26% or below” up to 80% from 65%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:14 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 4 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

65%80%

5.26% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:14 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move+15 pts
Market at capture83%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.26% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE80%0 pts since publication
Kalshi82%+19 pts since publication
Gap−2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 4 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:52Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:58Z PBE 80% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 20:58Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:08Z PBE 65% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:10Z PBE 80% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.26% or below” from 65% to 80% (+15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 3 21:14Z → Nov 4 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 63% to 83%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 3 21:14Z (data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z) and the one at Nov 4 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 4 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.26% or below” from 65% to 80%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.7 bp to 4.7 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.32% to 5.28%; Business days left from 17 to 16.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.7 bp4.7 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-032026-11-04—
Latest official par yield5.32%5.28%yes
Business days left1716yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.26% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 3 00:26ZNov 4 20:50Z65%80%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 70% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 70% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 70% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 65% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 4 20:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.070
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 1 16:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 2 00:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 03:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:22ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 07:28ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 08:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 08:48ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 09:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 09:48ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 10:08ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 10:18ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 10:46ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 11:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 11:56ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 2 12:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 12:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 2 12:26ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 13:14ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 13:32ZKalshi mid73
Nov 2 13:34ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 14:10ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 14:22ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:36ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 14:38ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 14:42ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:48ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 14:52ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 14:56ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 15:16ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 15:34ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:42ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 15:46ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 15:56ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:10ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 16:26ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 16:58ZKalshi mid96
Nov 2 19:40ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 19:46ZKalshi mid94
Nov 2 19:50ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 19:54ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 20:08ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 20:10ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 20:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 20:26ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.070
Nov 2 20:50ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.070
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 00:16ZKalshi mid86
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 02:12ZKalshi mid86
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 03:56ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 04:16ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 07:02ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 07:04ZKalshi mid82
Nov 3 07:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 3 07:10ZKalshi mid83
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 3 07:32ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid86
Nov 3 08:16ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 10:02ZKalshi mid86
Nov 3 10:54ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 3 11:40ZKalshi mid82
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 3 12:26ZKalshi mid83
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid85
Nov 3 12:50ZKalshi mid83
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 3 13:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 13:08ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 13:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 3 13:34ZKalshi mid82
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 13:42ZKalshi mid74
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 13:50ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid75
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid76
Nov 3 14:44ZKalshi mid72
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 14:54ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 15:04ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 15:26ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 15:50ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 16:18ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 16:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 16:30ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 16:32ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 17:42ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 17:44ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 17:52ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 18:04ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 18:06ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 19:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 19:28ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 19:42ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 20:02ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 20:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 20:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.065
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 00:10ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 00:18ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 00:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 00:28ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 00:30ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 01:04ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 01:06ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 01:10ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 01:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 01:22ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 01:42ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 02:08ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 02:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 02:20ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 02:52ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 03:04ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 03:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 04:36ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 04:38ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 04:40ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 04:44ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 05:06ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 05:22ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 07:40ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 08:12ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 09:10ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 09:16ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 09:22ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 09:26ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 09:34ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 10:02ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 10:04ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 10:18ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 10:20ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 10:22ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 10:36ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 10:46ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 12:10ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 12:28ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 12:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 13:30ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 13:38ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 13:46ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:50ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 13:56ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 14:12ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 14:18ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 14:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 14:22ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 14:26ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 14:46ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 14:48ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 14:52ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 15:08ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 15:12ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 15:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 15:16ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 15:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 15:28ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 15:38ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 15:52ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 15:58ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 16:16ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 16:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 16:22ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 16:34ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 16:42ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 16:46ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:02ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:06ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 17:24ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 17:32ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 17:42ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:48ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 17:52ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 17:58ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 18:04ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 18:08ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:18ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 18:36ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 18:44ZKalshi mid79
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 19:02ZKalshi mid81
Nov 4 19:08ZKalshi mid80
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 19:16ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 19:18ZKalshi mid84
Nov 4 19:32ZKalshi mid85
Nov 4 19:52ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:02ZKalshi mid84
Nov 4 20:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:12ZKalshi mid82
Nov 4 20:16ZKalshi mid83
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 63% to 83%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE65%80%
Market at capture63%83%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.26% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
266db0c8-56d4-4c6e-ab57-aaa8a24fa818
Compared with
8381db60-bee6-41ad-925d-5738328a89ae
Captured
Nov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 4 20:50Z
Market observation
83% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 30-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS30 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 30-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.27% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.