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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.24% or below” down to 40% from 78%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:10 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 10 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

78%40%

5.24% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:10 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move−38 pts
Market at capture40%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

5.24% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE40%0 pts since publication
Kalshi40%−37 pts since publication
Gap0

RESEARCH PBE Nov 10 21:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:52Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 10 20:54Z PBE 40% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 20:54Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:08Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:10Z PBE 40% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:10Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:16Z PBE 78% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 10 21:18Z PBE 40% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 10 21:18Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.24% or below” from 78% to 40% (−38 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 21:10Z → Nov 10 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 77% to 40%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 21:10Z (data cutoff Nov 9 21:10Z) and the one at Nov 10 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 10 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.24% or below” from 78% to 40%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.5 bp to 4.7 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.26% to 5.35%; Business days left from 13 to 12.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.5 bp4.7 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-092026-11-10—
Latest official par yield5.26%5.35%yes
Business days left1312yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.24% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 6 00:26ZNov 10 20:50Z78%40%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 40% · Nov 10 20:50Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 10 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 1 04:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 05:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 06:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 07:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 08:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 09:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 10:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 1 16:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 10 00:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 00:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 00:18ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 01:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 01:08ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 01:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 02:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 02:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 02:42ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 02:44ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 03:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 04:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 05:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 05:36ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 05:40ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 05:42ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 05:54ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 06:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 06:14ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 06:32ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 07:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 08:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 09:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 09:58ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 10:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 10:06ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 11:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 11:14ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 12:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 14:02ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 14:06ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 14:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 10 14:16ZKalshi mid49
Nov 10 14:20ZKalshi mid45
Nov 10 14:26ZKalshi mid48
Nov 10 14:36ZKalshi mid50
Nov 10 14:38ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 14:42ZKalshi mid43
Nov 10 14:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 10 15:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 10 15:02ZKalshi mid42
Nov 10 15:06ZKalshi mid41
Nov 10 15:08ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 15:16ZKalshi mid39
Nov 10 15:22ZKalshi mid38
Nov 10 15:38ZKalshi mid40
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 10 16:06ZKalshi mid39
Nov 10 16:22ZKalshi mid40
Nov 10 16:36ZKalshi mid37
Nov 10 16:38ZKalshi mid34
Nov 10 16:52ZKalshi mid36
Nov 10 16:56ZKalshi mid35
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 10 17:06ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 17:40ZKalshi mid31
Nov 10 18:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 10 18:10ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 18:20ZKalshi mid31
Nov 10 18:26ZKalshi mid32
Nov 10 19:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 10 19:06ZKalshi mid33
Nov 10 19:16ZKalshi mid35
Nov 10 19:26ZKalshi mid36
Nov 10 19:30ZKalshi mid37
Nov 10 19:50ZKalshi mid38
Nov 10 20:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 10 20:10ZKalshi mid40
Nov 10 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.040
Nov 2 00:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 00:12ZKalshi mid65
Nov 2 00:14ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 01:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 02:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 03:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 04:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 05:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 06:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 07:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 07:22ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 07:28ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 08:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 08:32ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 08:48ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 09:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 09:02ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 09:48ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 10:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 10:08ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 10:18ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 11:34ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 11:52ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 11:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 12:08ZKalshi mid68
Nov 2 12:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 2 13:14ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 13:32ZKalshi mid67
Nov 2 13:34ZKalshi mid70
Nov 2 13:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 13:44ZKalshi mid76
Nov 2 13:54ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 2 14:22ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 14:34ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 14:36ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:44ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 14:48ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 14:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 14:52ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 14:54ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 15:16ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:24ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid85
Nov 2 15:36ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 15:40ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 15:44ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 15:50ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 15:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 2 16:20ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 16:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 16:26ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 16:30ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 17:14ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 17:20ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 17:30ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:34ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 17:38ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 17:44ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 17:48ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:54ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:06ZKalshi mid91
Nov 2 18:10ZKalshi mid93
Nov 2 18:14ZKalshi mid92
Nov 2 18:32ZKalshi mid90
Nov 2 18:44ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 18:50ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:10ZKalshi mid84
Nov 2 19:16ZKalshi mid83
Nov 2 19:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 2 19:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 2 20:04ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:18ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 20:26ZKalshi mid80
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 2 20:50ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 2 23:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 00:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 00:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 01:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 02:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 03:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 03:56ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 04:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 04:16ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 05:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 05:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 06:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 06:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 07:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 07:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 07:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 07:24ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 08:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 08:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 09:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 10:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 10:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 3 10:50ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 10:54ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 11:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 3 11:40ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 12:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 12:26ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 12:36ZKalshi mid79
Nov 3 13:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 3 13:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 13:22ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 13:40ZKalshi mid65
Nov 3 13:44ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 13:50ZKalshi mid70
Nov 3 13:54ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 13:58ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 14:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 3 14:04ZKalshi mid69
Nov 3 14:10ZKalshi mid67
Nov 3 14:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 3 14:26ZKalshi mid64
Nov 3 14:40ZKalshi mid68
Nov 3 14:50ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 15:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 15:04ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 15:10ZKalshi mid60
Nov 3 15:20ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 15:24ZKalshi mid53
Nov 3 15:26ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:30ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 15:40ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:50ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 15:54ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 16:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 16:04ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 16:10ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 16:14ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 16:26ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 16:30ZKalshi mid62
Nov 3 16:44ZKalshi mid63
Nov 3 17:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 3 17:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 3 17:06ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 17:12ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 17:16ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 17:42ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 3 18:06ZKalshi mid54
Nov 3 18:26ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 18:32ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 19:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 19:12ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 19:42ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 20:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 3 20:02ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 20:04ZKalshi mid57
Nov 3 20:16ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 3 21:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 3 22:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 23:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 3 23:38ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 00:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 00:02ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 00:18ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 00:20ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 00:28ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 00:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 01:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 01:06ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 01:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 01:40ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 01:42ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 01:54ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 02:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 02:08ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 02:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 02:20ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 03:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 03:04ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 03:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 03:20ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 04:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 04:36ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 04:40ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 05:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 05:08ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 06:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 06:36ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 07:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 08:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 09:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 09:22ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 09:26ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 10:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 10:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 10:04ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 10:20ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 12:10ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 13:30ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 13:32ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 13:46ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 13:56ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 14:18ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 14:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 14:28ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 14:34ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 14:50ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 15:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 15:06ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 15:14ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 15:16ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 15:18ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 15:22ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 15:26ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 15:28ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 15:32ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 15:42ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 15:48ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 15:58ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 16:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 16:06ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 16:12ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 16:16ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 16:20ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 16:46ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 16:52ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 16:56ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 16:58ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 17:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 17:16ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 17:22ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 17:58ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 18:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 18:22ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 18:26ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 18:36ZKalshi mid72
Nov 4 18:48ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 19:02ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 19:08ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 19:12ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 19:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 19:18ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 19:32ZKalshi mid78
Nov 4 19:38ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 19:46ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 19:52ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 20:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 4 20:06ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 20:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.072
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.072
Nov 4 21:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.058
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.072
Nov 4 22:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 23:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 00:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 00:26ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 01:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 01:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 01:18ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 01:20ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 01:24ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 01:32ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 02:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 02:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 02:10ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 02:52ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 03:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 03:28ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 03:34ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 03:36ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 04:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 04:32ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 05:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 05:06ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 06:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 06:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 06:36ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 06:44ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 06:50ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 07:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 07:20ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 07:56ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 08:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 10:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 10:18ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 10:20ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 11:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 11:42ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 12:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 13:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 13:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 13:16ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 13:50ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 13:52ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 14:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 14:06ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 14:14ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 14:24ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 14:28ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 14:30ZKalshi mid73
Nov 5 14:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 5 14:46ZKalshi mid72
Nov 5 14:50ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 15:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 15:02ZKalshi mid76
Nov 5 15:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 15:14ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 15:20ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 15:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 5 15:48ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 15:50ZKalshi mid75
Nov 5 15:52ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 15:54ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 16:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 16:08ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 16:10ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 16:12ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 16:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 16:20ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 16:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 16:34ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 16:40ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 16:42ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 16:46ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 16:54ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 17:04ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 17:10ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 17:14ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 17:20ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 17:24ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 17:30ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 17:34ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 17:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 17:44ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 17:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 17:56ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 17:58ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 18:04ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 18:06ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 18:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 18:16ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 18:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 18:30ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 18:46ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 19:04ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 19:10ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 19:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 5 19:16ZKalshi mid89
Nov 5 19:20ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 19:24ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 19:34ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 19:44ZKalshi mid90
Nov 5 19:54ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 20:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 5 20:20ZKalshi mid85
Nov 5 20:22ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 20:34ZKalshi mid86
Nov 5 20:40ZKalshi mid87
Nov 5 20:44ZKalshi mid84
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 5 20:50ZKalshi mid82
Nov 5 20:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.072
Nov 5 21:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 5 21:04ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 21:58ZKalshi mid79
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 22:34ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 22:38ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 5 23:08ZKalshi mid80
Nov 5 23:20ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 00:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 00:04ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 00:24ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 00:36ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 01:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 01:08ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 01:36ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 02:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 02:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 02:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 03:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 03:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 03:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 03:54ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 04:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 05:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 05:34ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 06:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 06:18ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 07:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 07:08ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 08:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 08:42ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 09:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 10:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 10:32ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 11:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 11:46ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 11:50ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 12:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 14:04ZKalshi mid74
Nov 6 14:10ZKalshi mid75
Nov 6 15:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 6 15:14ZKalshi mid75
Nov 6 15:30ZKalshi mid73
Nov 6 15:34ZKalshi mid75
Nov 6 15:38ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 15:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 15:42ZKalshi mid76
Nov 6 15:50ZKalshi mid75
Nov 6 15:54ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 15:56ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 16:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 16:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 16:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 16:14ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 16:20ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 16:22ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 16:24ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 16:30ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 16:50ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 16:54ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 16:58ZKalshi mid77
Nov 6 17:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 6 17:04ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 17:14ZKalshi mid81
Nov 6 17:24ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 17:32ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 17:34ZKalshi mid83
Nov 6 17:38ZKalshi mid86
Nov 6 17:40ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 17:42ZKalshi mid85
Nov 6 17:50ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 17:54ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 18:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 6 18:10ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 18:24ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 18:40ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 18:46ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 18:50ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 19:00ZKalshi mid91
Nov 6 19:06ZKalshi mid90
Nov 6 19:10ZKalshi mid89
Nov 6 19:14ZKalshi mid88
Nov 6 19:16ZKalshi mid87
Nov 6 19:20ZKalshi mid89
Nov 6 19:24ZKalshi mid84
Nov 6 19:34ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 19:56ZKalshi mid83
Nov 6 20:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 6 20:06ZKalshi mid82
Nov 6 20:10ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 20:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 20:16ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 21:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083
Nov 6 21:16ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 6 21:16ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 21:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 6 22:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 22:06ZKalshi mid79
Nov 6 23:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 00:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 00:16ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 01:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 01:38ZKalshi mid83
Nov 7 01:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 02:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 03:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 04:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 04:26ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 05:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 7 05:36ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 06:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 07:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 08:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 09:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 10:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 11:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 12:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 13:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 14:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 15:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 17:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 00:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 01:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 01:42ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 02:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 03:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 04:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 04:32ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 05:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 06:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 07:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 08:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 08:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 09:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 10:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 11:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 12:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 13:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 14:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 15:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 16:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 16:02ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 17:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 18:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 20:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 21:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 21:46ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 23:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 23:46ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 23:48ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:26ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 00:50ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 01:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 01:06ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 01:20ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 01:22ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 02:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 02:36ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 03:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 04:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 04:16ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 04:18ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 05:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 05:10ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 06:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 07:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 07:18ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 08:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 08:46ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 09:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 10:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 10:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 11:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 11:12ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 11:20ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 12:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 13:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 13:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 13:06ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 13:10ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 13:22ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 13:24ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 13:36ZKalshi mid88
Nov 9 13:40ZKalshi mid87
Nov 9 13:42ZKalshi mid86
Nov 9 13:46ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 13:52ZKalshi mid89
Nov 9 13:54ZKalshi mid88
Nov 9 14:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 9 14:02ZKalshi mid87
Nov 9 14:06ZKalshi mid89
Nov 9 14:16ZKalshi mid89
Nov 9 14:18ZKalshi mid90
Nov 9 14:20ZKalshi mid91
Nov 9 14:36ZKalshi mid90
Nov 9 14:38ZKalshi mid89
Nov 9 14:44ZKalshi mid90
Nov 9 14:50ZKalshi mid87
Nov 9 14:52ZKalshi mid86
Nov 9 15:00ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 15:06ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 15:10ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 15:26ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 15:30ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 15:32ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 15:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 15:42ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 15:52ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 15:56ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 16:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 16:10ZKalshi mid73
Nov 9 16:22ZKalshi mid72
Nov 9 16:26ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 16:56ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 17:06ZKalshi mid72
Nov 9 17:26ZKalshi mid73
Nov 9 17:56ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 18:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 18:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 18:32ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 19:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 19:16ZKalshi mid73
Nov 9 19:28ZKalshi mid74
Nov 9 19:42ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 19:56ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 20:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 20:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 20:12ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 20:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 20:48ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 20:50ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 20:52ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.078
Nov 9 21:38ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 22:02ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 22:10ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 9 23:02ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 23:06ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 23:24ZKalshi mid75
Nov 9 23:34ZKalshi mid76
Nov 9 23:46ZKalshi mid78

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 77% to 40%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 9 21:10ZNov 10 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE78%40%
Market at capture77%40%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.24% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f8ca465a-4f4d-45a9-9025-262e5f783ef9
Compared with
acd02b15-a12d-47e1-a5b5-6decf8af07b5
Captured
Nov 10 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 10 20:50Z
Market observation
40% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 30-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS30 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 30-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.25% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.