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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.41% or below” up to 77% from 47%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:54 UTC and 20:12 UTC on Oct 20. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 20 20:12ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

47%77%

5.41% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:54 UTC → 20:12 UTC

Move+30 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.41% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE77%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 20 20:38Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:18Z PBE 47% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:20Z PBE 77% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:20Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:26Z PBE 47% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:34Z PBE 77% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:34Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:36Z PBE 47% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 19 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 20 20:38Z PBE 77% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 20:38Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.41% or below” from 47% to 77% (+30 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 19 19:54Z → Oct 20 20:12Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 19 19:54Z (data cutoff Oct 19 19:54Z) and the one at Oct 20 20:12Z (cutoff Oct 20 20:12Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.41% or below” from 47% to 77%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.4 bp to 4.5 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.48% to 5.42%; Period high/low so far from 5.43% to 5.42%; Business days left from 9 to 8.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.4 bp4.5 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-192026-10-20—
Latest official par yield5.48%5.42%yes
Period high/low so far5.43%5.42%yes
Business days left98yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.41% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 12 07:51ZOct 20 20:12Z47%77%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 15% · Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 10% · Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 18% · Oct 9 20:09ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 13 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 14 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 77% · Oct 15 19:59ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 76% · Oct 16 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 47% · Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 76% · Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 47% · Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 77% · Oct 20 20:12Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 20 20:12ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 13 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.026
Oct 14 20:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.037
Oct 15 13:24ZKalshi mid80
Oct 15 19:59ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.077
Oct 15 20:59ZKalshi mid86
Oct 16 02:34ZKalshi mid87
Oct 16 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.076
Oct 19 01:54ZKalshi mid86
Oct 19 02:04ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 03:36ZKalshi mid88
Oct 19 07:02ZKalshi mid86
Oct 19 18:24ZKalshi mid52
Oct 19 18:34ZKalshi mid51
Oct 19 18:44ZKalshi mid53
Oct 19 18:50ZKalshi mid54
Oct 19 18:54ZKalshi mid56
Oct 19 19:00ZKalshi mid55
Oct 19 19:06ZKalshi mid54
Oct 19 19:14ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 19:32ZKalshi mid46
Oct 19 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.047
Oct 19 19:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.076
Oct 19 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.047
Oct 19 20:00ZKalshi mid47
Oct 19 20:14ZKalshi mid52
Oct 19 21:00ZKalshi mid52
Oct 19 21:16ZKalshi mid43
Oct 19 21:34ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 22:00ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 22:02ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 23:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 23:14ZKalshi mid47
Oct 19 23:16ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 23:18ZKalshi mid47
Oct 19 23:32ZKalshi mid51
Oct 20 00:00ZKalshi mid51
Oct 20 00:12ZKalshi mid52
Oct 20 01:00ZKalshi mid52
Oct 20 01:34ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 02:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 03:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 03:14ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 03:50ZKalshi mid55
Oct 20 04:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 05:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 06:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 06:32ZKalshi mid56
Oct 20 06:44ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 07:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 08:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 09:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 10:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 11:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 20 20:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.077
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.020
Oct 5 15:44ZKalshi mid37
Oct 5 15:48ZKalshi mid37
Oct 5 16:08ZKalshi mid48
Oct 5 16:22ZKalshi mid24
Oct 5 16:24ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 16:28ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 16:32ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 16:48ZKalshi mid16
Oct 5 16:52ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 17:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 17:10ZKalshi mid26
Oct 5 17:30ZKalshi mid17
Oct 5 17:32ZKalshi mid18
Oct 5 17:44ZKalshi mid16
Oct 5 17:58ZKalshi mid15
Oct 5 18:00ZKalshi mid15
Oct 5 18:44ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 18:50ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 18:54ZKalshi mid16
Oct 5 19:00ZKalshi mid17
Oct 5 19:04ZKalshi mid18
Oct 5 19:08ZKalshi mid18
Oct 5 19:14ZKalshi mid19
Oct 5 19:18ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 19:30ZKalshi mid24
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.013
Oct 5 19:54ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 20:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 21:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 21:04ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 22:01ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 22:04ZKalshi mid34
Oct 5 23:01ZKalshi mid34
Oct 5 23:34ZKalshi mid35
Oct 5 23:38ZKalshi mid38
Oct 6 00:01ZKalshi mid39
Oct 6 00:02ZKalshi mid38
Oct 6 01:01ZKalshi mid38
Oct 6 01:40ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 01:44ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 02:01ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 02:06ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 02:10ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 02:12ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 03:01ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 03:22ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 03:24ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 04:01ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 04:31ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 05:01ZKalshi mid36
Oct 6 05:14ZKalshi mid35
Oct 6 06:01ZKalshi mid35
Oct 6 06:24ZKalshi mid37
Oct 6 06:44ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 06:58ZKalshi mid30
Oct 6 07:01ZKalshi mid30
Oct 6 07:12ZKalshi mid32
Oct 6 07:24ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 08:01ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 09:01ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 10:01ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 11:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 6 11:24ZKalshi mid39
Oct 6 14:10ZKalshi mid17
Oct 6 14:44ZKalshi mid16
Oct 6 14:50ZKalshi mid16
Oct 6 14:56ZKalshi mid17
Oct 6 15:00ZKalshi mid16
Oct 6 15:40ZKalshi mid14
Oct 6 15:44ZKalshi mid15
Oct 6 15:46ZKalshi mid15
Oct 6 15:54ZKalshi mid16
Oct 6 16:00ZKalshi mid16
Oct 6 16:10ZKalshi mid15
Oct 6 16:24ZKalshi mid14
Oct 6 17:00ZKalshi mid15
Oct 6 17:54ZKalshi mid21
Oct 6 19:02ZKalshi mid27
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.015
Oct 7 17:22ZKalshi mid7
Oct 7 17:24ZKalshi mid10
Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.010
Oct 8 17:58ZKalshi mid39
Oct 8 18:00ZKalshi mid39
Oct 8 18:12ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 18:30ZKalshi mid43
Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.020
Oct 9 20:09ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.018

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoffOct 19 19:54ZOct 20 20:12Z
Guidance runs——
PBE47%77%
Market at capture46%—

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.41% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c6a16ea2-e1de-4256-813b-358ba85a6166
Compared with
7ccf9f7d-8e01-4379-89ef-8819b7ac12d4
Captured
Oct 20 20:12Z
Data cutoff
Oct 20 20:12Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 30-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS30 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 30-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.42% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.