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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026: PBE moves “4.67% or below” up to 82% from 66%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:14 UTC and 20:50 UTC on Nov 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 4 20:50ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

66%82%

4.67% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:14 UTC → 20:50 UTC

Move+16 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?

4.67% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE82%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 4 21:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:52Z PBE 66% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 4 20:58Z PBE 82% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 20:58Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:08Z PBE 66% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 3 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 4 21:10Z PBE 82% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 4 21:10Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.67% or below” from 66% to 82% (+16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 3 21:14Z → Nov 4 20:50Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 3 21:14Z (data cutoff Nov 3 21:14Z) and the one at Nov 4 20:50Z (cutoff Nov 4 20:50Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.67% or below” from 66% to 82%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.5 bp to 5.5 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.74% to 4.69%; Period high/low so far from 4.7% to 4.69%; Business days left from 17 to 16.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.5 bp5.5 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-032026-11-04—
Latest official par yield4.74%4.69%yes
Period high/low so far4.7%4.69%yes
Business days left1716yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.67% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 04:02ZNov 3 00:26ZNov 4 20:50Z66%82%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 77% · Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 77% · Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 77% · Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 80% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 4 20:50Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 4 20:50ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 04:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.077
Nov 2 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 2 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.077
Nov 2 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 2 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.077
Nov 2 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.080
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoffNov 3 21:14ZNov 4 20:50Z
Guidance runs——
PBE66%82%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.67% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e8446c65-7125-4755-806d-9b4632e2f0b5
Compared with
85db8c63-bad7-42d8-af93-1608af108d4a
Captured
Nov 4 20:50Z
Data cutoff
Nov 4 20:50Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.68% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.