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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026: PBE moves “4.54% or below” down to 54% from 74%

New Treasury data reached the model between 21:04 UTC and 20:52 UTC on Nov 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 6 20:52ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

74%54%

4.54% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 21:04 UTC → 20:52 UTC

Move−20 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?

4.54% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE54%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Nov 6 21:16Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 6 20:58Z PBE 74% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 5 23:59Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 6 21:00Z PBE 54% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 6 21:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 6 21:04Z PBE 74% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 5 23:59Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 6 21:08Z PBE 54% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 6 21:08Z
  5. UPDATE · Nov 6 21:14Z PBE 74% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 5 23:59Z
  6. UPDATE · Nov 6 21:16Z PBE 54% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 6 21:16Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.54% or below” from 74% to 54% (−20 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 5 21:04Z → Nov 6 20:52Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 5 21:04Z (data cutoff Nov 5 21:04Z) and the one at Nov 6 20:52Z (cutoff Nov 6 20:52Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.54% or below” from 74% to 54%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.7 bp to 5.6 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.59% to 4.64%; Business days left from 15 to 14.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.7 bp5.6 bpyes
last_published_date2026-11-052026-11-06—
Latest official par yield4.59%4.64%yes
Business days left1514yes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 6 20:52ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.54% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2 21:32ZNov 4 21:12ZNov 6 20:52Z74%54%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 2 21:32ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 33% · Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 54% · Nov 6 20:52Z
PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 6 20:52ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 21:32ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043
Nov 3 20:48ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 3 20:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043
Nov 3 20:56ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 3 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043
Nov 3 21:00ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 3 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043
Nov 3 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 3 21:12ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.043
Nov 3 21:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 4 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 4 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 4 20:58ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 4 21:08ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.033
Nov 4 21:10ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 5 20:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 5 21:02ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.042
Nov 5 21:04ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.074
Nov 6 20:52ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.054

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 5 21:04ZNov 6 20:52Z
Data cutoffNov 5 21:04ZNov 6 20:52Z
Guidance runs——
PBE74%54%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.54% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
a112021e-43c6-4a29-9b0a-477e7ede6c2c
Compared with
ce559514-9300-48af-b6ba-c496767f4387
Captured
Nov 6 20:52Z
Data cutoff
Nov 6 20:52Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-11-01..2026-11-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.55% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.